MLB Best Bets Tuesday | Odds, Expert Picks for Twins vs. Astros & More (May 30)

MLB Best Bets Tuesday | Odds, Expert Picks for Twins vs. Astros & More (May 30) article feature image

Photo by Elsa/Getty Images. Pictured: Joe Ryan (Twins)

  • Every team is in action on Tuesday in MLB, so our experts have three best bets across two games.
  • We start with a duel between two quality offenses before transitioning to the Twins vs. Astros game.
  • Dive in below and formulate your betting card.

After a Memorial Day filled with day baseball, Tuesday's slate features just night games, even though every team is in action.

With that in mind, our staff is targeting two matchups for three best bets, including one for the Twins vs. Astros clash.

Dive in below for your MLB best bets for Tuesday to help you formulate your card.

Tuesday's MLB Best Bets

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

7:10 p.m. ET
Under 10
7:10 p.m. ET
Under 10
8:10 p.m. ET
Twins F5 -140
Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

Reds vs. Red Sox

Tuesday, May 30
7:10 p.m. ET
Under 10

By Tanner McGrath

Brayan Bello’s recent improvements have been amazing to watch. He has a 2.57 ERA, a 25% strikeout rate and a 60% ground-ball rate over his past five starts – he’s starting to harness command and control of his electric arsenal.

Brayan Bello now has four straight starts of 5+IP, 5+ K, and 2 ER or less.

CH, SL, and FF all have a whiff rate above 35% this month.

This is the Bello we've been waiting

— Eric Cross (@EricCross04) May 21, 2023

Also, Bello has worked 28 innings across those five starts, so he’s working deeper into games.

Bello will share the mound with Cincinnati’s Ben Lively, who’s back in the Majors after two years in the KBO. And he looks outstanding!

Lively has put together four quality outings in four tough situations, allowing only four runs across 15 innings to the Cardinals, Yankees and Mets before allowing another run across 2 1/3 innings at Coors Field.

I’m not going to say Lively has great stuff, but he has lengthy extension and plus-command (105 Location+), so he works by deceiving batters on the corners.

#Reds Stuff+ Notes 5/24

A Ben Lively Analysis

A lesson in what’s possible when a pitcher can locate a wide array of MLB quality pitches.

He’s going to have to continue locating his FBs well — but an 88% Whiff Rate ([) & 115 Loc+ on his SL is absolutely incredible.

— Reds in Four (@RedsInFour) May 25, 2023

It’s daunting to bet the under between these two great offenses and poor bullpens, but allow me to ease your worries.

First, the Reds are having a tough month, ranking 23rd in wRC+ against right-handed pitching since the calendar flipped (90).

Second, I think the market is finally catching up to the Red Sox – i.e., these totals are getting out of control. The Sox are 7-3 to the under over their past seven games.

Also, surprisingly, all four games between the Reds and Red Sox last year went under.

Finally, both bullpens are fully rested after a day off on Monday.

Also, I’m higher on the Boston bullpen than most, as I think the Kenley Jansen-Chris Martin-Josh Winckowski trio is actually pretty good.

Either way, I’ll bet the under on this relatively high total and hope the game doesn’t get away from us in the later innings.

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Under 10

By D.J. James

In a start between Lively of the Cincinnati Reds and Bello of the Red Sox, bettors would assume a high total, but this opening line is far too inflated.

Lively has thrown very well in May in four outings. He owns a 0.88 WHIP and a 2.65 ERA against a 2.50 xERA.

His results are in line with expectations, and it helps that he has an average exit velocity at 86 mph so far. This is not bad for a guy who hasn't thrown in the big leagues since 2019.

Bello had high expectations coming into the season for the BoSox. He's getting hit kind of hard, with a 90.9 mph average exit velocity. His ERA is 4.08 against a 4.96 xERA, so results have been more favorable than what's likely to come.

That said, he has a 2.74 ERA in May over the course of 23 innings pitched, so things are improving for the 24-year-old fire-baller.

Batting-wise, these two teams have struggled mightily with right-handed pitching lately. Boston has a 95 wRC+ in May with a sub-7% walk rate. Cincy has a 9.4% walk rate in May off of righties, but it has an even lower wRC+ at 90.

Sure, both bullpens have some sore spots, but since both of these pitchers have looked stable lately, backing the bats to be quiet on Tuesday is wise, given the line.

Take this total under from 10 (-115), and play it to 9 (-120).

Twins vs. Astros

Tuesday, May 30
8:10 p.m. ET
Twins F5 -140

By Tanner McGrath

Joe Ryan changed his slider to a sweeper and his changeup to a split-change in the offseason, and the results are staggering.

Half the Twins’ pitching staff is having a career year, but Ryan is the current king of the Minnesota rotation.

Ryan’s four-seam and split-change have a combined -17 Run Value, so he’s working with an ERA and xERA below 2.40, a K-BB rate above 25% and a WHIP under 1.00.

And here’s a fun fact:

Lowest Ball Rates 2023 (7 GS minimum)
This is the % of your pitches that go for a ball

1) Joe Ryan 27.8%
2) George Kirby 28.6%
3) Spencer Strider 30.1%
4) Mitch Keller 30.3%
5) Zach Eflin 30.4%
6) Drew Rasmussen 31.0%
7) Clayton Kershaw 31.2%
8) Julio Urias 32.1%
9) Sandy…

— Jon Anderson (@JonPgh) May 22, 2023

Pretty much everything he throws goes for a strike. He’s seen a monster increase in his Chase and Swinging-Strike rates.

It’s all working for Ryan.

Houston starter Brandon Bielak has transitioned well to the rotation, but his 3.55 ERA is masked by a 91.5% strand rate (about 20% above league average). So, his xERA is actually north of 6.00.

This Astros' offense is not that impressive. And they’re in their worse split, given they project and perform better against southpaws.

Meanwhile, the Twins have been a slightly above-average offense over the past two weeks, boasting a 106 wRC+. I’ve been very critical of these bats, but they might be turning things around.

And maybe the return of Royce Lewis will put a huge jolt into this offense.

One year to the day that he tore his ACL, former No. 1 overall pick Royce Lewis returns and hits a homer! 👏

— MLB (@MLB) May 29, 2023

The bullpen matchup heavily favors the Astros – you saw Brock Stewart almost blow the game Monday by allowing a grand slam to Jose Altuve – so I’d rather avoid that matchup and back Ryan and the Twins in the first half.

I’ll take Minnesota’s F5 ML up to (-150).

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