MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres (Tuesday, Sept. 8)
Dustin Bradford/Getty Images. Pictured: Chi Chi Gonzalez.
Rockies vs. Padres Odds
|Rockies Odds||+210 [Bet Now]|
|Padres Odds||-238 [Bet Now]|
|Over/Under||8.5 (-120/+100) [Bet Now]|
|First Pitch||Tuesday, 9:10 p.m. ET|
The San Diego Padres used a ninth inning RBI double off the bat of Jurickson Profar to break a scoreless game and snag a win last night against the Colorado Rockies. The win moved the Padres to 7-3 in their last 10 games.
Tonight, they’ll hope starting pitcher Mike Clevinger can extend their streak to three games with some extra run support from his new ball club. Clevinger pitched well in his first start for San Diego after being traded from Cleveland. He went six innings and allowed two runs in a 2-0 defeat to the Los Angeles Angels.
With the Padres, you can expect Clevinger to command a hefty price, and tonight is no different. To back him and the Padres, you’re going to have lay nearly 5/2 odds in this spot.
At that price, I’d rather take a look at the total to find odds that are more suitable to my liking.
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San Diego Padres
Mike Clevinger will make just his sixth start this season. He went 21 days between starts when he was sent to an alternate training site for the Cleveland Indians after breaking team rules and MLB’s coronavirus protocol. It’s unclear if that had much to do with him being traded to the Padres, but my guess is that it might have tipped the scales.
On the plus side of things, one benefit to his inactivity is that his arm is relatively fresh. His fastball averaged 96.2 mph in his last start, which was a few ticks higher than his first start this season when it averaged 94.3 mph.
This season, Clevinger is 1-2 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. His 5.07 FIP is at a career-high, his 3.77 BB/9 ratio is up nearly 43% from last season, and his 7.22 K/9 ratio is down 33% from last year (12.07 K/9). Batters are also hitting .262 against him, which is .053 points higher than last season.
The added traffic on the bases doesn’t seem to have bothered Clevinger much this season. Overall, Clevinger is stranding 90.6% of the runners that reach base. With his velocity actually improving, I think the best is yet to come for the San Diego right-hander.
Clevinger will be opposed by Chi Chi Gonzalez of the Colorado Rockies. Gonzalez has been working his way back from injury after a biceps strain landed him on the Injured List (IL). In his previous two outings, he came on as a reliever and combined for six innings of two-run ball.
Gonzalez has yet to factor in a decision this season as he’s 0-0 with a 5.00 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. He carries a 6.04 FIP, but it’s worth noting that all three of his outings have been at home at Coors Field. His second outing came against the Padres, and he held them to just one run in four innings of relief.
The Padres lineup has faced Gonzalez 31 times, and they’ve only managed a .161 BAA / .212 OBP / .226 SLG slash line against him. Those numbers bode well for Gonzalez, who also benefits from the absence of San Diego’s cleanup hitter and first baseman Will Hosmer tonight.
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I’m always on the lookout when the Rockies play a road game. They’re a team whose numbers differ dramatically from when they’re playing at Coors Field.
The Rockies have scored 40 fewer runs and hit eight fewer home runs on the road despite only a one-game difference between their home and road splits. Their batting average away from Coors Field is also .075 points lower, and their slugging percentage is .111 points lower.
At Coors Field, Colorado is an elite team with a wRC of 121, but on the road Colorado’s wRC falls to 72. The Rockies’ home and away over/under splits reflect their on-field batting numbers: Colorado reports a 13-6-1 record to the under when playing on the road this season.
This will be the first time many of Colorado’s hitters will face off against Clevinger, as they only have 11 combined at-bats against him. In that small sample, the Rockies have managed only two hits — and Kevin Pillar was responsible for both of them.
This game opened at 9 and immediately took some sharp money down to 8.5. I still think it’s worth a look, as Clevinger is 5-1 to the under in his last six starts with a total of 8.5.
The last four games between these two teams have stayed under the total, and I’m willing to risk a half-unit that we see another under tonight.
The Pick: Under 8.5 (+100). Play down to 8. Risking 0.5 units.