MLB Daily Betting Model, 4/14: Can Jameson Taillon Match Max Scherzer?

Apr 14, 2019 12:17 PM EDT
Credit:

Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Washington Nationals pitcher Max Scherzer (31)

  • Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps to find edges in betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and First 5 (F5) innings.
  • He analyzes the April 14 slate of baseball games with his model below, including the Pirates-Nationals and Dodgers-Brewers matchups.
  • Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.

Our long national nightmare is over: Chris Davis finally busted out of his 0-54 slump yesterday, with his first base hit since Sep. 15, 2018.

After the two-run single to give the Orioles the lead (they won 9-5), Davis asked to keep the ball.

Davis finished 3-for-5 with two doubles and four RBI. Much has been made of his slump, but it all might have been worth it so that we could have this cathartic release together:


Recapping Yesterday’s Model

The model went 3-3 against full-game moneylines, 1-1 against moneylines for the first five innings (F5), and 1-0 against totals.

My biggest miss was skipping out on the Blue Jays (+185) upsetting Tampa Bay.

My actual picks, which ultimately included a prop (Blake Snell over 8.5 strikeouts) and a first-inning bet (Tampa Bay Rays -0.5 runs) went 3-3-1, +0.26U.

It was a decent day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV). 

I gained 15 cents on the Marlins F5 (+145 to +130), 10 cents on the Dodgers -0.5 F5 bet (+105 to -105), and 5 cents on the Reds (+106 to +101).

I gave back 3 cents on the Mets (+132 to +135), and 10 cents on the total (-120 vs. -110).


On Deck for Sunday 4/14

All odds as of early Sunday morning.

The model recommends four full-game moneylines, and three moneylines for the first five innings (F5) on Sunday. 

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model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game
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