MLB Daily Betting Model, 4/14: Can Jameson Taillon Match Max Scherzer?
Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Washington Nationals pitcher Max Scherzer (31)
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps to find edges in betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and First 5 (F5) innings.
- He analyzes the April 14 slate of baseball games with his model below, including the Pirates-Nationals and Dodgers-Brewers matchups.
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
Our long national nightmare is over: Chris Davis finally busted out of his 0-54 slump yesterday, with his first base hit since Sep. 15, 2018.
After the two-run single to give the Orioles the lead (they won 9-5), Davis asked to keep the ball.
Davis finished 3-for-5 with two doubles and four RBI. Much has been made of his slump, but it all might have been worth it so that we could have this cathartic release together:
Recapping Yesterday’s Model
The model went 3-3 against full-game moneylines, 1-1 against moneylines for the first five innings (F5), and 1-0 against totals.
My biggest miss was skipping out on the Blue Jays (+185) upsetting Tampa Bay.
My actual picks, which ultimately included a prop (Blake Snell over 8.5 strikeouts) and a first-inning bet (Tampa Bay Rays -0.5 runs) went 3-3-1, +0.26U.
It was a decent day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I gained 15 cents on the Marlins F5 (+145 to +130), 10 cents on the Dodgers -0.5 F5 bet (+105 to -105), and 5 cents on the Reds (+106 to +101).
I gave back 3 cents on the Mets (+132 to +135), and 10 cents on the total (-120 vs. -110).
On Deck for Sunday 4/14
All odds as of early Sunday morning.
The model recommends four full-game moneylines, and three moneylines for the first five innings (F5) on Sunday.
The 4% trigger threshold officially marked the Marlins, Mariners, Pirates, and Tigers as the full-game plays. It also likes the Dodgers, Marlins, and Mariners as F5 plays.
I immediately looked to play the Marlins and Mariners in the F5 market instead of the full game market, as Houston and Philadelphia have bullpen advantages over those home underdogs.
On paper, there isn’t much separating Phillies starter Vince Velasquez and Marlins starter Jose Urena. Marco Gonzales (4-0) provides consistently solid if unspectacular outings for Seattle.
I remain uninterested in betting on the Tigers, and the number continues to move aggressively against them despite 48% of moneyline tickets behind them. Detroit opened at +166 and stands at +200 or higher as of the time of writing.
I played the Dodgers on both the F5 and full-game line. I have their fair odds for the full game at around -165 — nearly 20 cents off from the current number. I also have their F5 probability over 3% higher than that, with fair odds closer to -185.
The Dodgers have dropped six straight games, and the public might be sick of losing their money backing this team. That said, the Dodgers should have a pitching edge today with Ross Stripling facing Jhoulys Chacin.
Jhoulys Chacin has the look of an improved pitcher since the beginning of 2018, to be sure, but the Brewers’ excellent team defense also bails him out of a lot of hard contact, particularly in the outfield. Eventually, those hard-hit balls into the corners are going to get past Christian Yelich and fall for extra bases.
Los Angeles will look to ride Ross Stripling and his big curveball to victory:
The light-hitting Pirates (3.6 runs per game) take on Max Scherzer and the Nationals, but the Pirates have been extremely competitive all series long. They should be in for another pitcher’s duel today by sending out Jameson Taillon.
The Pirates ace has faced a lot of adversity in his career: He missed the 2014 season following Tommy John surgery, the 2015 season due to a sports hernia, and underwent surgery for testicular cancer in May of 2017 (but was able to return to the rotation within a couple of months).
At an imposing 6-foot-6, 225 pounds, Taillon was the second overall pick in the 2010 MLB draft, going in between Bryce Harper and Manny Machado.
Taillon’s fastball clocks in at around 95-97 mph with excellent movement, and on his best days he looks every bit the part of a future Cy Young winner.
I’ll back Taillon today (and the Pirates’ bullpen, which is better than Washington’s) at big plus-money over the full game.
I also played Over 10 in the Cardinals-Reds clash in Mexico. The total for yesterday’s contest climbed from 9.5 to 11, and I expect today’s total to ultimately settle at 10.5. Last night’s game featured seven runs, but there were also three home runs and 15 runners left on base, and the ball was visibly flying in the outfield.
Bets (So Far) for April 14
Thus far, I have locked in:
- LA Dodgers F5 ML (-140) and Game ML (-145)
- Miami Marlins F5 ML (+150)
- Pittsburgh Pirates Game ML (+167)
- Seattle Mariners F5 ML (+148)
- St. Louis – Cincinnati: Over 9 (-120)
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 4/14: Moneylines & Over/Unders
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.