The 2026 MLB season has just arrived, but it's never too early to talk about how things will shake out come the end of September.
We could talk about which team will win it all, but sometimes it's more fun to be a hater. So, let's take a look at Kalshi's odds for which team will finish with MLB's worst record.
For those interested in wagering during the 2026 MLB season, Kalshi, which blends traditional financial systems with innovative prediction markets, allows you to make predictions in most U.S. states and offers a variety of unique markets.
Use the Kalshi promo code below to claim $10 in bonus funds when signing up as a new user.
2026 MLB Worst Record Odds
It's tough to see a team with higher than 50% odds to circle the bottom of the MLB tub, but in the case of the Rockies, it's more or less expected — from both their fans and the rest of the league — at this point. By finishing 43-119 in 2025, Colorado gave the 2024 White Sox a run for their money for the title of worst record (41-121) in the modern era.
And despite bringing in "Moneyball" pioneer Paul DePodesta to run their baseball operations, the Rockies didn't get much better over the offseason. They bolstered the depth of what was the worst rotation in the league by adding a trio of veterans in Michael Lorenzen, José Quintana, and Tomoyuki Sugano, but none of them are needle-movers. DePodesta brought in a few platoon bats as well — outfielder Jake McCarthy and Edouard Julien — but again, it won't be enough to change the outlook of an offense whose best projected hitter is Hunter Goodman at a 106 wRC+.
Behind the Rockies is where things get interesting. The Nationals are the next most likely team at just 11% odds, as new President of Baseball Operations Paul Toboni has started tearing things down again after Washington's last failed rebuild. And while he's done a good job of getting value for MacKenzie Gore and José A. Ferrer, his moves don't necessarily make the team better in 2026. James Wood and CJ Abrams will anchor the offense, but the lineup depth drops off significantly after them. Toboni has attempted to fill Gore's innings with under-the-radar additions of Zack Littell and Foster Griffin, but they can only raise the rotation's floor so much.
The rest of the top five in Kalshi's odds have their own interesting cases. In the cases of the Twins and Angels, it's one of mismanagement. Minnesota lost 92 games in 2025, decided not to trade away its top two trade chips in Pablo López and Joe Ryan, and now López will miss the whole season recovering from Tommy John surgery. Meanwhile, the Angels did the same thing they always do: finish last in their division, do nothing to bolster their farm system, then spend the offseason signing and trading for ineffective veterans.
Finally, there's the Cardinals, who, after a slow and agonizing decline from their turn-of-the-decade competitive years, have finally decided to fully tear things down. Gone are Nolan Arenado, Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras, and Brendan Donovan, and in came a heck of a lot of pitching depth. It's not going to provide much of an upgrade for 2026, but it's a start.
What is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in most states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections and even weather.
Also, Kalshi’s refer-a-friend program is a "win-win" for prediction market traders. By inviting a friend to the platform, both you and your friend receive a $25 credit once they meet the initial trading requirements.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment, and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
