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MLB Betting Tip: Road Underdogs Undervalued Early in Season


Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Chicago Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo (44)

  • The Chicago Cubs have started the season 1-5 and are road underdogs against the Milwaukee Brewers on Friday (7:10 p.m. ET).
  • Using the Bet Labs database, we share a profitable moneyline system for exploiting underperforming teams early in the season.

What is wrong with the Cubs? Chicago has lost five straight and is 1-5 for the first time since 2012 — the team lost 101 games that season. Pitching and errors have been an issue to start the 2019 campaign.

Yu Darvish set a career high with seven walks in his first start at Texas on Saturday, Cole Hamels gave up five runs in five innings to the Rangers the following day and Kyle Hendricks surrendered seven runs to the Braves on Monday — the Cubbies also committed six errors in the 8-0 loss to Atlanta.

The starting pitching hasn’t been great but somehow the bullpen has been even worse. The relievers have blown three late-inning leads in five games and the bullpen’s ERA ranks 29th in baseball.

Chicago is already 4.5 games behind the NL Central leading Milwaukee Brewers. Cubs fans are hitting the panic button but it is important to not overreact to a six-game sample when a team plays a 162-game slate.

Fans have a hard time doing this, and so do bettors. Recency bias early in the baseball season creates an edge for gamblers willing to overlook poor performances.

Since 2005, underdogs in March and April have gone 2,361-2,909 (44.8%) straight up (SU) per Bet Labs. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit $8,279 wagering on every dog to start the season despite having a losing record.

Why does this work?

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