Finally, Opening Day has arrived.
The MLB slate is loaded, with 11 excellent games beginning in the early afternoon and ending after Midnight on the East Coast.
Our staff of MLB betting experts has been waiting for this moment all Summer, and they're locked in.
I've grabbed four of their MLB Picks and Today's Best Bets for Opening Day on Thursday, March 26.
MLB Picks: Today's Best Bets for Opening Day
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3:05 PM | |
  | 2:10 PM | |
  | 8:30 PM | |
  | 4:10 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Twins vs Orioles Picks
By Sean Zerillo
The Twins are my lone projected moneyline edge for Thursday's opening day slate, and I also show value on the Over in this contest.
Baltimore opened closer to -165 (62.3% implied), with the Twins near +140 on March 16, but the line quickly shortened to +130, and has continued to move toward my projected price for this game. Baltimore has lost more than five percent in implied win probability, now sitting at -135 (57.5%)
The Orioles were among the most active teams this offseason, and no other club saw a more significant increase in its projected win total from market open to opening day (from 76.5 to 85.5 wins).
Still, these teams performed comparably in 2025 (70 wins for Minnesota, but 71 Pythagorean wins and 75 Baseruns wins; 75 wins for Baltimore, but 70 expected wins per Pythag and Baseruns), and the gap between their 2026 opening-day rosters isn't as wide as the anticipated gap after the trade deadline.
Minnesota still has a lot of offensive talent in their lineup, particularly against left-handed pitching (Byron Buxton, Josh Bell, Luke Keaschall, Royce Lewis, and Ryan Jeffers all project >116 wRC+ against southpaws), and Joe Ryan (projected 3.70 weighted FIP) ranks as the better starting pitcher than Trevor Rogers (projected 4.24).
Rogers (1.81 ERA in 18 starts) has the better 2025 season, but their underlying 2025 metrics (3.40 xERA, 3.64 xFIP, 17.5% K-BB% for Rogers; 3.43 xERA, 2.74 xFIP, 22.5% K-BB%) are closer than their 2026 projections would indicate. Stuff models (108 to 100) favor Ryan, but botERA says they are both around 3.50 ERA arms.
Baltimore's lineup is both deeper and better (average 112 wRC+ vs. righties vs. a 107 vs. lefties for Minnesota), but the relief pitchers are comparable; the top five to six arms in either bullpen project for a near 4.00 FIP on average. This Twins unit should be much better than the group that finished 28th (4.56 FIP) in the second half of 25.
The weather could play a significant part in this game, with 12 mph winds blowing out to right-center at Camden Yards.
The weather conditions also triggered a BetLabs Overs system that has generated a 4.8% ROI since 2005.
The total did come down from 8.5 to 8, but I would buy the Over back to 8.5 (-115), and take the underdog down to +115.
Check out Zerillo's full MLB Opening Day betting card in his Opening Pitch column:
Pick: Twins ML (+115 or Better)
| | | |
White Sox vs Brewers Prediction
This game triggered one of our Action PRO Systems, powered by Evan Abrams.
This system identifies early-season road underdogs (games one through nine of a season) when the moneyline is moderately high (+131 to +500).
Early in the year, oddsmakers and the public often overreact to small sample performance or offseason hype, creating pricing inefficiencies.
Underdogs benefit from unpredictability and inconsistent form among favorites.
obody is particularly interested in backing the White Sox, but if I have to do it, I’m fine doing it behind Shane Smith.
The White Sox’s pitching development has been surprisingly good in recent seasons. While Smith’s profile isn’t overwhelming, he’s a half-decent pitcher who picked up over two fWAR last season across 146 innings.
He has a nice high-90s fastball that he pounds the zone with and generates plenty of strikes. If he could control his secondary stuff better and cut back on the walks, he might be in for a breakout season.
At the same time, I’m looking to fade the Brewers.
They won 97 games last season! While Milwaukee is a very well-run organization that always overachieves, that’s a very tough bar to meet.
I suspect the Brew Crew will be slightly overvalued in the early going. And, perhaps the White Sox are slightly undervalued, as this organization seems to be heading in the right direction, at least when it comes to competence.
Want more MLB betting systems? Download the Action Network App and sign up for an Action PRO subscription today:
Pick: White Sox ML (+150 or Better)
| | | |
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers Best Bet
By Matt Trollo
Dodger Stadium is a slightly positive run environment (102 Statcast Park Run Factor), but also a top-five power environment for left-handed hitters (119 Home Run Factor) and the most power-friendly park in the league for right-handed hitters (135).
There’s not much variance in the weather in Los Angeles. Winds generally blowing out play a part in the power-friendly environment.
Both starters threw just under 70 pitches in their final tune-up on Friday (Gallen 66, Yamamoto 68). Assuming an 80-to-85 pitch limit, we’re probably looking at something around five innings for Gallen. Yamamoto, with a bit more efficiency, could get through six.
That would bring us into Vesia/Scott/Diaz territory, unless Dave Roberts continues to feel the need to feed Treinen high-leverage work.
A slightly rosier projection for Gallen than his 2025 season still likely keeps him more than half a run behind Yamamoto, giving the Dodgers significant edges both in starting pitching and offense.
Also, despite both bullpens projecting the same 4.01 ERA via Fangraphs depth charts, the healthy, currently available pitchers give the Dodgers an edge in higher-leverage situations.
If we stop there, the Dodgers are rightfully the very large more than two-to-one favorites the market currently says they are.
However, base-running and defense move the number back a bit in Arizona’s direction.
In my first piece for the Action Network, I’m going to be endorsing a large underdog that is likely to lose, but probably not as often as the current market suggests.
The Dodgers are a public favorite, which often leads to over-pricing, and that may be exactly what we have here.
The proof is that, despite winning the second-most games in the league last year (93), they were the seventh-least profitable team. According to Sports Insights, a unit on the Dodgers in each game would have turned backers into 13-plus-unit losers on the season. Via Covers.com, the Dodgers were the only team in the bottom 12 that won more than 83 games.
They appear to be overvalued here as well.
Bettors may even elect to wait, as the line has been climbing this week.
Read Trollo's full Diamondbacks-Dodgers preview here:
Pick: Diamondbacks ML (+190 or Better)
| | | |
Red Sox vs Rays Prop Bet
By Doug Ziefel
The Reds will give the ball to Andrew Abbott, who is one of the biggest regression candidates on the mound for Opening Day.
To his credit, Abbott posted an excellent 2.87 ERA across 166 innings of work last season, but his 3.97 xFIP is far more telling of how fortunate he was.
Abbott has all the qualities of a pitcher bound to work around traffic. He does not get ahead in the count, he does not generate many whiffs, and when the ball is put in play against him, it was only on the ground 30.5% of the time in 2025.
This all sets up for Red Sox shortstop Trevor Story to do damage.
Story has traditionally crushed lefties throughout his career, posting a .291 average, a .930 OPS, and 133 wRC+ against them.
While we saw a dip in his production against lefties in 2025, it's clear Story is bound to trend up against a lefty in Abbott, who is trending down, which should lead to him doing damage at the Great American ban box this afternoon.
Check out all of Ziefel's MLB player props for Opening Day here:
Pick: Trevor Story Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110 or Better)
| | | |
