The New York Mets host the Pittsburgh Pirates on March 26, 2026. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 1:15 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on NBC/Peacock.
The Mets are favored by -116 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Pirates are -102 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 6.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Pirates vs Mets prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Pirates vs Mets Prediction
- Pirates vs Mets Pick: Pirates ML (-105 or Better)
My Pirates vs Mets best bet is on the Pirates to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Pirates vs Mets Odds
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +180 | 6.5 -122o / -100u | -102 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -220 | 6.5 -122o / -100u | -116 |
- Pirates vs Mets spread: Mets +1.5 (-220), Pirates -1.5 (+180)
- Pirates vs Mets over/under: 6.5 (-122 / -100)
- Pirates vs Mets moneyline: Pirates -102, Mets -116
Pirates vs Mets Projected Starting Pitchers
| Paul Skenes (RHP) | Stat | Freddy Peralta (RHP) |
|---|---|---|
| 10-10 | W-L | 17-6 |
| 6.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.6 |
| 1.97 / 2.65 | ERA /xERA | 2.70 / 3.42 |
| 2.36 / 3.03 | FIP / xFIP | 3.64 / 3.85 |
| 0.95 | WHIP | 1.08 |
| 23.7% | K-BB% | 19.1% |
| 44.3% | GB% | 37.3% |
| 112 | Stuff+ | 99 |
| 110 | Location+ | 108 |
Pirates vs Mets Betting Preview
Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview: Moving in Silence
The sky is blue, the grass is green, and Paul Skenes is starting Opening Day for the Pittsburgh Pirates.
If there is any pitcher in the sport who is “must watch” every start right now, it is Skenes. He dazzled to a 1.97 ERA last season on the way to his first Cy Young Award, with more sure to come.
In just his first full season, Skenes led the majors in ERA and ranked in the top five in strikeouts. At just 23 years old, he is already one of the two most dominant pitchers in the game.
In the World Baseball Classic, Skenes picked up right where he left off against the game’s best players, allowing just one run across 8 1/3 innings, striking out nine batters. Skenes is as reliable as any pitcher in the game; the only question with him comes down to how much run support he will get.
While they didn’t make the front page of the paper like the team in the other dugout, Pittsburgh quietly made some really solid moves this offseason. Grading on a curve for the typical Pittsburgh spending, it filled out the roster with MLB-caliber hitters.
After finishing last among MLB lineups in scoring and wOBA last season, the Pirates brought in Brandon Lowe, Ryan O’Hearn, and Marcell Ozuna this offseason.
With the pitching rotation in the Steel City, just adding three above-average hitters can make a big difference. They will join the inconsistent yet talented Oneil Cruz and the underappreciated Bryan Reynolds in what should be an improved lineup.
New York Mets Betting Preview: Fresh Coat of Paint
It was another busy offseason for the New York Mets.
After missing the postseason, the Mets once again resorted to winning the offseason. The included trading for ace Freddy Peralta from Milwaukee. Fresh off a top-five NL Cy Young finish, Peralta posted a career-best 2.70 ERA across 33 starts for the Brewers, racking up 204 strikeouts.
Once known by the nickname “Fastball Freddy,” he has dropped that moniker over the last few years, dropping his fastball usage from 78% earlier in his career to just 53.5% last season. In turn, his changeup and curveball have become dominant pitches, turning him into one of the best pitchers in the league.
Despite losing some cornerstone pieces this offseason, like Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo, and Jeff McNeil, Uncle Stevie opened up his wallet and brought in Bo Bichette, Marcus Semien, Jorge Polanco, and Luis Robert Jr. to fill those holes.
They will join MVP candidates Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor to make up one of the league’s best offenses on paper. MLB.com ranked them as the No. 6 lineup in baseball earlier this week.
Soto had a terrific first season in Queens, clubbing 43 home runs and leading all hitters in walks, while somehow stealing 38 bases after not eclipsing 12 in any prior seasons.
The Mets know what to expect from Soto and Lindor at the top of this lineup. But the success of the season likely hinges on how healthy they can stay, and if Robert and Semien can bounce back after dreadful 2025 seasons.
Pirates vs Mets Pick, Betting Analysis
It might not look like much, but adding Lowe, O’Hearn, and Ozuna should give the Pirates' lineup a nice boost that it hasn’t seen in the last few years. That is three above-average hitters who posted a wRC+ of at least 114 last season and a combined 69 home runs, replacing three minor league-quality hitters.
With a pitcher like Skenes on the mound, that extra power might be all the Buccos need.
In 32 starts last season, Skenes allowed more than two runs just six times. Skenes went just 10-10 last season and is 21-13 in his career despite being one of the best pitchers in the game. According to a study by The Athletic, if Skenes got just league-average run support in his first two seasons, he would have a 41-3 record.
Pittsburgh averaged just 3.05 runs per game in Skenes’ starts last season. If Lowe, O’Hearn, and Ozuna can help bring that number up just a tick, the Pirates are going to win a lot more games behind their elite pitching staff.
I think we see the start of that on Opening Day as Skenes dazzles in the Big Apple and gets the run support to get a victory.
A lot of the Pirates' hitters have seen plenty of Peralta from his time in the NL Central. Reynolds has had a ton of success against him in the past, hitting .385 with a .443 wOBA in 39 at-bats.
Even if Peralta has success in his Mets debut, the New York bullpen is probably its biggest question mark.
Star closer Edwin Diaz is gone, and five of their projected bullpen pieces are new additions. No question is bigger than closer Devin Williams, who is coming off a disaster season on the other side of town with the Yankees.
I’ll ride with Skenes here and trust the Buccos offseason additions will give them enough of a boost to Raise The Jolly Roger on Thursday.
Pick: Pirates ML (-105 or Better)
