Spring Training games are officially here, and rosters are nearly set for the season ahead. As we get a better picture of how each MLB team's lineup and pitching staff will shape up, we can start to think about division races.
Prediction market Kalshi has odds posted for each team's chances of winning the AL East, with four teams given a legitimate chance to challenge for the division.
You can trade on Major League Baseball and other sporting events, as well as thousands of additional markets, at Kalshi, which is available in most states. We wrote a full explainer on how it works here, and have a Kalshi promo code ready if you want to get in on the action.
So, let's dive into some AL East predictions.
AL East Odds, Predictions
Odds are via Kalshi and update every hour.
New York Yankees AL East Odds
In an offseason where the Yankees' front office has faced criticism for not bringing in much new blood, what's been lost is exactly how good the Bronx Bombers were in the 2025 regular season.
They were the top offense in MLB by wRC+, with their 119 mark leading the second-place Dodgers by six whole points. They brought back their three free agents on that side of the ball in Cody Bellinger, Trent Grisham, and Paul Goldschmidt, and have an opportunity to improve internally at first base, third base, and designated hitter thanks to the further development of Ben Rice, a full season of Ryan McMahon instead of Oswald Peraza, and a healthy Giancarlo Stanton to start the season.
The concerns for this group come on the pitching side. Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón are both expected to miss at least a month while recovering from injuries, causing the club to lean more on inconsistent young arms like Luis Gil and Will Warren. Cam Schlittler's emergence was promising, and the addition of Ryan Weathers will give a boost to the Max Fried-led rotation, but it might struggle out of the gate. David Bednar returns to the closer role, but the front office hasn't made splashy additions to cover the losses of Devin Williams and Luke Weaver in free agency.
Toronto Blue Jays AL East Odds
Surprisingly, last year's AL pennant winners, who came just a few outs short of a World Series victory, are not the favorites to win the division in 2026. Granted, they barely snatched the AL East crown from the Yankees via the head-to-head tiebreaker in 2025, but this was a dominant regular season team that kicked things up a notch in the postseason.
And unlike the Yankees, they didn't stop there. They lost Bo Bichette to the Mets in free agency, but they patched the infield hole with Japanese slugger Kazuma Okamoto while moving Andrés Giménez to shortstop full-time to shore up their defense. On the pitching side, they signed Dylan Cease to a megadeal to be their ace of the future, while adding KBO returnee Cody Ponce as high-upside rotation depth, and signing submariner Tyler Rogers to bolster the bullpen.
Considering the current odds, the best value might be on the Blue Jays to repeat.
Boston Red Sox, Baltimore Orioles AL East Odds
A tier below the top teams lie the Red Sox and Orioles, who have retooled their rosters over the past nine months and should at least be competitive in the Wild Card race, if not the division.
While not super active in free agency aside from signing Ranger Suárez away from the Phillies, the Red Sox bolstered their club via a plethora of trades; acquiring Willson Contreras and Caleb Durbin to fill out their infield, and bringing in Sonny Gray and Johan Oviedo to deepen the rotation behind Garrett Crochet and Suárez.
Baltimore made the bigger splash, prying Pete Alonso from Queens on a five-year deal to serve as the best right-handed complement to Gunnar Henderson in this lineup. Baltimore also made the tough decision to part with oft-injured former top prospect right-hander Grayson Rodriguez in exchange for outfielder Taylor Ward, but bolstered their rotation depth by bringing back Zach Eflin, signing Chris Bassitt after a successful Toronto tenure, and trading for high-upside righty Shane Baz from Tampa Bay.
Both of these teams are a few injuries away from serious AL East contention, but don't let their under-20% odds fool you — the Red Sox and the Orioles are good enough to win almost any other division in baseball.
What is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in most states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections, and even weather.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment, and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
