The New York Yankees host the Houston Astros on August 25, 2026. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on YES.
The Yankees are favored by -140 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Astros are +124 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Astros vs Yankees prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Astros vs Yankees Prediction
- Astros vs Yankees Pick: Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Hits
My Astros vs Yankees best bet is for Yordan Alvarez to hit two or more hits. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Astros vs Yankees Odds
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +140 | 8.5 -120o / -100u | +124 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -165 | 8.5 -120o / -100u | -140 |
- Astros vs Yankees moneyline: Astros +124, Yankees -140
- Astros vs Yankees over/under: 8.5 (-120o / -100u)
- Astros vs Yankees spread: Yankees -1.5 (+140 ), Astros +1.5 (-165)
Astros vs Yankees Probable Pitchers
| Ethan Pecko (RHP, HOU) | Stat | Will Warren (RHP, NYY) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | W-L | 8-6 |
| 0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.3 |
| 4.91 / 3.78 | ERA / xERA | 4.43 / 4.67 |
| 4.18 / 7.06 | FIP / xFIP | 4.27 / 3.83 |
| 5.6% | K-BB% | 14.8% |
| 10.0% | GB% | 43.3% |
| .300 | BABIP | .314 |
| 107 | Stuff+ | 104 |
| 81 | Location+ | 105 |
Astros vs Yankees MLB Betting Preview
Houston Astros Betting Preview
Yordan Alvarez continues to put together an offensive campaign that borders on generational. The Astros slugger boasts Statcast metrics that sit almost exclusively at the absolute top of Major League Baseball:
- xwOBA, xBA, xSLG: 100th Percentile
- Average Exit Velocity: 99th Percentile
- Barrel Rate: 98th Percentile
- Hard-Hit Rate: 97th Percentile
- Bat Speed: 92nd Percentile
Alvarez has obliterated every pitch type he has faced this season. Opposing staffs throw him fastballs more than 56% of the time, yet he has hit .311 with 21 home runs against four-seamers and sinkers alone.
Even more impressive is his performance against offspeed offerings, where he holds a blazing .344 batting average.
Facing a pitcher who struggles to generate whiffs on his primary offerings gives Alvarez an unmatched floor to rack up hits.
New York Yankees Betting Preview
Yankees' starter Will Warren carries surface results that mask significant pitch-quality concerns. Holding an expected ERA (xERA) noticeably higher than his actual ERA, Warren has frequently been bailed out by New York's home run-heavy offense rather than dominant underlying stuff.
Warren features a five-pitch mix, but his usage strategy plays directly into Alvarez's hands:
- Offspeed Pitching: Ranks in the solid 71st percentile in Offspeed Run Value, yet he utilizes his changeup just 12% of the time.
- Primary Repertoire: Relies heavily on a breaking ball (2nd percentile) and a four-seam fastball (13th percentile) that get hit with authority.
- Hard Contact: Sits in the bottom tier of MLB in opponent exit velocity while surrendering a bloated 43.7% hard-hit rate.
In four of their five career head-to-head plate appearances, Alvarez has recorded a hit against Warren. Given Warren's reliance on subpar fastballs and breaking pitches, Alvarez is positioned for another dominant outing at the plate.
Astros vs Yankees Pick, Betting Analysis
Action Network's PRO Projections software identifies a significant discrepancy between the consensus line and Alvarez's true multi-hit probability.
By factoring in Alvarez's .344 average against offspeed pitches and Warren's low-percentile fastball profile, the model finds a substantial edge in taking the over on Alvarez to record two or more base hits at lucrative plus-money odds.
Will Warren's pitch selection and tendency to surrender hard contact create a nightmare scenario against Houston's top run producer.
With Alvarez boasting 100th-percentile quality-of-contact metrics and holding a proven track record against Warren's primary offerings, expect the Astros star to put together multiple quality at-bats and clear his hit prop cleanly.
Back the model edge and take Alvarez to collect at least two hits.
Pick: Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Hits (+180, FanDuel)
