While Thursday Night Football kicks off at 8:30 PM ET, we have four Major League Baseball games with first pitches well before that.
We've got MLB Best Bets Today for all four games, including picks for Rays vs Braves, Astros vs Phillies, Rangers vs Mariners, and Rockies vs Yankees.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12:15 PM | |
  | 1:05 PM | |
  | 4:10 PM | |
  | 7:05 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Derek Carty's Rays vs Braves Best Bet
By Derek Carty
THE BAT X is forecasting 14.97 pitching outs for Nick Martinez compared to 16.81 pitching outs implied by the oddsmakers, so I believe there is value here.
If you take the under, you'd be projected to win 70% of the time, resulting in a 33% ROI.
Based on a $100 wager, the expected value here would be $36.35.
This play is good down to at least -173.
Love THE BAT X? Get all of Carty's sports betting projections at EV Analytics!
Pick: Nick Martinez Under 17.5 Outs (-173 or Better)
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Matt Trollo's Astros vs Phillies Best Bet
By Matt Trollo
Temperatures in the mid-80s with a 10 mph wind out towards right-center is the early forecast for Philly. Similar conditions have historically bumped run scoring 2-4% in a park that already plays 4% above average.
However, scheduled umpire Jeremie Rehak brings that back 2.1%, nearly negating the current forecast, which could change.
Cristian Javier completed five innings for the first time in four outings last time out, allowing a single run, while striking out eight Diamondbacks.
He has just one quality start on the season because he’s finished six innings just once.
Javier’s K-BB has been on the rise (25.7% last four starts, 12.6% on the season), but his contact profile has been feast or famine.
Of the 14 barrels he’s allowed so far (9.4%), 11 have come in just five outings, while he’s allowed only three across all his other starts. He’s allowed multiple barrels three times in his last six and none in the other three.
All of that said, his 5.98 ERA is a bit elevated by a .329 BABIP, 69.3 LOB%, and having nine of his 14 barrels leave the park. Estimators are closer to five, with weighted estimators closer to four and a half, considering much improvement to his peripherals over the last month.
Ironically, RHBs have smoked Javier for a .382 wOBA and .380 xwOBA, while the Phillies are likely to stack the lineup mostly with LHBs and probably one more than usual with Realmuto starting on Wednesday night. LHBs have only two of those nine home runs Javier has surrendered in a similar number of plate appearances (only 17 PA difference).
RHBs also own a .333 wOBA against Javier, but just a .294 xwOBA, which seems to be where most of the discrepancy between his results and indicators lies.
The projected Phillies’ lineup averages a 103 wRC+ at home, but just 93 against RHP. The good news is that they’ve added to the big three (Schwarber 126 wRC+, Harper 172 wRC+ and Marsh 105 wRC+) with Arraez (114 wRC+), but still, no other projected Phillie exceeds a 95 wRC+ against RHP this year.
These projected nine also only average a 96 wRC+ over the last month.
The Houston defense projects for 0 FRV, perfectly average.
More irony, these bullpens virtually tie for seventh-best estimators over the last 30 days, averaging a FIP, xFIP, and SIERA within 0.01 runs of each other at three and two-thirds runs per nine.
BARTOLO ranks both bullpens top 10 as well, but gives the home team a one-fifth or a run edge.
Zack Wheeler has recovered from a concerning stretch where he allowed 19 runs (18 earned) in just 19.1 innings with a 7.3 K-BB% to strike out 15 of his last 48 batters, while walking five and allowing just two runs over his last 12 innings, while elevating his velocity nearly half a mph too.
But he still has a 13.9 BB% over his last six starts.
The biggest thing to mention against the Astros is that Wheeler has held RHBs to a .245 wOBA and .228 xwOBA this year.
Important: the Astros are only expected to start three LHBs, although they could also counter with LaMonte Wade Jr., who isn’t scaring anybody.
I’m also projecting Yainer Diaz (110 wRC+ vs RHP, 142 wRC+ last 30 days) to sit after starting Wednesday night, bringing the projected Houston lineup to an average of 103 wRC+ on the road, 108 at home, but just 78 over the last month.
Yordan Alvarez (124 wRC+) and Isaac Paredes (151 wRC+) are the only projected Astros above a 94 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
A projected defense at -12 FRV is actually not that bad for the Phillies, and we’ve already discussed the bullpen, though we won’t know if anyone is unavailable until after this is published.
With Javier being a late confirmation, we’re still missing a few markets in this game, but I have found one I like.
While there are concerns for both pitchers in Javier’s volatility and Wheeler’s sudden walk issues, both should be in favorable matchups, facing the majority of batters from a side of the plate they’ve done better against.
Add in a pair of quality defenses, and I’m a bit below the market total of 8.5 on this game.
Pick: Under 8.5 (Bet through 8)
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Tanner McGrath's Rangers vs Mariners Best Bet
Our own Sean Zerillo projects some value on the Under in this matchup.
If you dive deep into this game on BARTOLO — our new PRO baseball betting tool — you'll see that Zerillo projects just 6.1 runs for this game, while you can still bet Under 6.5 at close to even money.
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We highly reccomend getting an Action PRO subscription today so you can use our BARTOLO tool to find your own MLB Best Bets.
Pick: Under 6.5 (-110 or Better)
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Nick Martin's Rockies vs Yankees Best Bet
By Nick Martin
Rice enters this matchup in the midst of an 0-for-9 slump, but given the price, that seems livable as the Yankees eye a soft matchup versus Ryan Feltner and a shaky bullpen.
Throughout his last ten starts, Feltner has pitched to an xERA of 5.17 with an xFIP of 5.11. He's allowed batters to hit .311 in that span and a slugging percentage of .642. He hasn't just been getting roughed up at Coors Field either, as he holds an ERA of 5.36 on the road this season and a slugging percentage of .505.
The Yankees are massive favorites in this matchup with Max Fried set to start, and hold a notably high team total of 5.5. With that in mind, this seems like a solid spot to target Rice to snap his slump and have a productive outing, given the price of 48c to record two bases.
Throughout his last 257 PAs, Rice holds a wRC+ of 132 and has slugged .475. He holds an xwOBA of .375 in that span, and ranks in the 94th percentile in xwOBA this season. Rice also owns considerably better splits versus right-handed pitching (.551 slug, .915 OPS).
While Rice's high-whiff and K-rates are concerns, Feltner should not be an overly likely candidate to expose those issues.
Pick: Ben Rice Over 1.5 Total Bases (-130 or Better)
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