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MLB Best Bets for Wednesday: Rockies vs. White Sox & Royals vs. Twins Lead Top Expert Picks

MLB Best Bets for Wednesday: Rockies vs. White Sox & Royals vs. Twins Lead Top Expert Picks article feature image
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David Berding/Getty Images. Pictured: Sonny Gray

  • There are 15 games on the Major League Baseball schedule and our experts have found a pair of best bets.
  • They're targeting both a runline and a team total as they eye the Rockies-White Sox and Royals-Twins.
  • Continue reading for analysis and our best bets.

There are 15 games on Wednesday’s Major League Baseball slate, which our experts have analyzed in search of betting value.

The Rockies-White Sox and Royals-Twins games stood out to our analysts and they’ve identified both a team total and a runline to target.

So, without further ado, let’s get to the bets.

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Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago White Sox
2:10 p.m. ET
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins
7:40 p.m. ET

Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago White Sox

Pick
White Sox o4.5
Book
Caesars
Pitchers
Kyle Freeland vs. Dylan Cease
First Pitch
2:10 p.m. ET

DJ James: Kyle Freeland will pitch for the Colorado Rockies against the red-hot Chicago White Sox. Dylan Cease, the American League Cy Young favorite, will take the hill for the White Sox.

Chicago has absolutely destroyed left-handers in the past month, which makes sense, given the amount of righties in the lineup. Since August 14, the Which Sox have an MLB-best 173 wRC+ and a .956 OPS off of southpaws.

Freeland ranks in the 18th percentile for Average Exit Velocity and the 15th percentile for Hard-Hit Rate. In addition, he rarely strikes out any hitters with a 16.7% mark. He may issue few free passes, but overall his 4.63 ERA and 5.18xERA leave a lot to be desired and mean his performances have been lucky. Look for that luck to end against this lineup.

The Sox have eight hitters with a xwOBA over .395 in this same timeframe and 12 hitters on the team are averaging at least 89 mph off the bat. Since Freeland does not prevent hard contact, the White Sox should crush his pitching early.

Finally, the Rockies have a bullpen xFIP of 3.93. This means the White Sox should be able to score a few more runs later in the game. Take the White Sox over 4 at -125. Play to 5 (-130).


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Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins

Pick
Twins Runline
Book
DraftKings
Pitchers
Zack Greinke vs. Sonny Gray
First Pitch
7:40 p.m. ET

Jules Posner: Zack Greinke may be one of the most fade-able road pitchers this season. His road ERA sits at 6.33 and he also has a 5.71 road FIP. He’ll be taking on a Twins’ offense that is in the top 10 in wRC+ against right handers over the past two weeks and they have consistently been one of the best home offenses this season.

On the other side, Sonny Gray has been excellent at home this season. He has a 2.97 ERA and a 3.43 FIP at home in 2022, and he’s only given up three earned runs in his past three home starts. While the Royals’ offense has fared well on the road against right handers as of late, it has struggled overall and should regress against the Twins.

Even if the Royals jump out to an early lead, their bullpen has been so bad this season that no lead is safe.

The Twins’ runline opened in plus money and that should be the play as long as it remains in plus money. However, this should be played to the -120 threshold.


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