Mariners vs. Rangers Odds & Pick (Monday, August 10): Starting Pitching Gives Texas the Edge

Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers Betting Odds

Odds as of Monday at 2 p.m. ET and via BetMGM. Get an INSTANT $500 deposit match at BetMGM today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

The Rangers are going streaking! If you’re a Rangers fan then perhaps that’s how you feel waking up today after the Texas team put together a nice run of three games on the spin. Despite being two games under .500, the Rangers find themselves in second place in the AL West, five games behind the division-leading Oakland A’s.

Texas will be looking to extend its winning streak to four games tonight in a  divisional matchup against the Seattle Mariners. The Mariners could be forced to rely on the bullpen pretty early in this one as their rookie pitcher, Justin Dunn, has failed to make it into the fifth inning in either of his two starts this season.

This could prove disastrous for a Mariners bullpen that has given up the most home runs in the majors (17) and also holds the fourth-worst bullpen ERA (6.78). This spot could be a tall task for the young right-hander who is still in search of his first big-league win.

Mariners Starting Pitcher

Through just seven innings of work this season, Justin Dunn has already given up three home runs. That amounts to a ratio of 3.86 home runs for every nine innings pitched. In those seven innings he’s also issued seven walks which translates to nine walks over nine innings.

Part of the reason for his high number of walks is that he simply isn’t generating enough swings outside the strike zone (11.3%). Despite throwing three primary pitchers (fastball, change-up, slider) and an occasional sinker, hitters don’t seem to be too troubled with what Dunn is serving up.

With a fastball that averages 92 mph and a change-up around 88 mph, I wonder if he’s getting enough separation between the two pitches.

As for his advanced numbers, Dunn currently has a 9.83 FIP and 6.43 ERA. Because ERA can be a lagging indicator, Dunn’s numbers could actually worsen over his next few starts.

The difference in quality is quite stark when you compare his start this season to that of Kyle Gibson.

Rangers Starting Pitcher

Kyle Gibson has yet to register a win on the season despite pitching fairly well thus far. In Gibson’s first start against the Diamondbacks, he went five innings without surrendering a run, but did not factor in the decision. In his most recent start, he battled the hot-hitting Oakland A’s and left after the sixth inning of a tie ballgame in which he gave up three runs on four hits and racked up nine strikeouts.

Gibson is currently 0-1 with a 2.45 ERA along with 13 strikeouts in only 11 innings. This should bode well against the swing-happy Mariners who have the fifth-most strikeouts in the majors (155). His 4.33 FIP and 3.59 SIERA numbers seem like Bob Gibson territory when compared to that of the opposing pitcher, Justin Dunn. If we look at the discipline of opposing hitters when facing Gibson, we find that 53.6% of his batted balls are on the ground and his 2.5 ratio of ground balls to fly balls is music to this bettor's ears.

Lastly, Gibson is inducing 31.4% of swings outside the zone versus 11.3% from Dunn.

What I'm Betting

Hopefully I’ve made my point as to why I like the Rangers tonight. The market seems to be in agreement as they’re backing the Rangers as if they already know the final score. The current price has been bet up from the open of around -140 to now -182 at BetMGM. In this instance, I’m not looking to disagree with the consensus play here.

To shave down some of the juice, I’ll look to split my action between two different bets. At BetMGM, I can grab the Rangers for half a unit on the run line in the first five innings (-0.5, -115) and I’ll place my other half unit on the run line for the full game (-1.5, +110).

When the smoke clears look for the Rangers to emerge the victors with Gibson notching his first victory of the season.

The Picks:

• Half unit on Rangers F5 -0.5 (-115, play up to -130)
• Half unit on Rangers FG -1.5 (+110,  play up to +100)

[Bet now at BetMGM. CO, NJ, IN and WV only.]