Brewers vs. Phillies MLB Odds, Pick, & Prediction: Betting Value On Thursday’s Over/Under (May 6)
Rich Schultz/Getty Images. Pictured: Rhys Hoskins.
- The Phillies go for a four-game sweep of the Brewers with Zack Wheeler squaring off against Brandon Woodruff.
- Both starters are off to stellar starts to 2021, but the two lineups also are due for some positive regression.
- Kevin Davis breaks down the matchup and delivers his best bet for the game.
Brewers vs. Phillies Odds
|Over/Under||6/5 (+100 / -121)|
|Time||Thursday, 1:05 p.m. ET|
The Milwaukee Brewers and the Philadelphia Phillies are two peas in the same pod. The Phillies are currently in first place in the NL East with a 15-15 record. The Brewers, like their hosts on Thursday afternoon, are having a good year because they have a 17-13 record and are half a game behind the first place St. Louis Cardinals.
Both teams also have negative runs differential despite having winning records as Philadelphia has a -15 run differential and Milwaukee has a -3 run differential. Additionally, the Phillies’ lineup entered Wednesday night’s game averaging 3.93 runs per game, while the Brewers average 4.03 runs per game. Even though both teams score fewer runs than the league average of 4.32 runs per game.
What makes both teams great is not their lineups, but their starting pitching. On Thursday afternoon in Philly, it will be a fun pitchers’ duel between the Brewers’ Brandon Woodruff and Phillies’ Zach Wheeler.
While the Brewers lineup has performed poorly, they are due for some positive should score more runs. Even though they are without the often-injured Christian Yelich this season, the Brewers are still capable of producing more runs.
Lorenzo Cain has just returned this week to the Brewers’ lineup. While Cain currently has a .161 batting average after only 34 at-bats this season, he is projected by FanGraphs to have a .271 batting average this season with a 91 wRC+. With a fully functional lineup that doesn’t have Yelich, the Brewers should average 4.02 runs per game for the rest of the season.
While the Milwaukee lineup is not a strength, the reason why they are favored on the road is because of starting pitcher Brandon Woodruff. After six starts, Woodruff has a 1.80 ERA, and a 2.99 xFIP. Most impressively, Woodruff is averaging almost six innings per start.
While Woodruff has shown that he is a workhorse, the average Brewers starter pitches for only around five innings per game. If almost half of the game is pitched by the Milwaukee bullpen, then the Phillies may find a way to produce enough runs to win.
While the Phillies’ lineup isn’t performing as well as it could be right now, the potential is definitely there for a lot of production. Andrew McCutchen, Rhys Hoskins, Alec Bohm and Didi Gregorious are all underperforming their pre-season projections. Of Philadelphia’s regular position players, only J.T. Realmuto is meeting his expectations.
Once the Phillies’ lineup as it is currently constructed hits its stride, it should average about 4.21 runs per game, which is around the league average.
Like the Brewers, the Phillies also have a strong starting pitcher in Wheeler, who enters the game with a 3.49 ERA and 3.51 xFIP. Most impressively, he is averaging more than 6 1/3 innings per start. While Wheeler is not a flashy, strikeout-heavy pitcher, he has been one of the most consistent starters in MLB this season.
The Brewers and the Phillies are evenly matched on Thursday afternoon, and the odds show it. According to my model, the best bet is on the Phillies as +105 home underdogs. The edge is so small, though, that I would not want to bet it myself.
For me, the best bet on the game is not on a side, but on the run total, which is only seven runs. Even though both teams’ lineups are underperforming and there is strong starting pitching, at least seven runs should be scored.
While the over is juice at -120, you have the extra advantage of getting a push if exactly seven runs are scored. In a game featuring players such as Gregorius and Hoskins for the Phillies and Cain and Daniel Vogelbach for the Brewers, I have a hard time seeing how six or fewer runs will be scored. That is why I am taking the over as long as the run total stays at seven runs.
Pick: Over 7 -115 (play to -125)
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