Dodgers vs. Astros Odds & Picks: Bet On A High-Scoring Affair On Tuesday

Dodgers vs. Astros Odds

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Tuesday's MLB slate is headlined by a 2017 World Series rematch between the Astros and the Dodgers.

Los Angeles got off to a slow start, splitting with the lowly Giants in its first series. Houston took care of business in its first series, taking three of four against Seattle. In 60-game sprint, series like these are crucial for both teams if they want to win their respective divisions.

Dodgers Projected Lineup

Despite their two losses to the Giants, the Dodgers offense came out of the gates hot posting a .370 wOBA and a 144 wRC+.

Adding Mookie Betts to an already-stacked offense has made the Dodgers' lineup almost impossible to navigate. In 2019, they were fairly successful against left-handed pitching, ranking 10th in MLB in terms of wOBA and wRC+. They should have no problem against Framber Valdez's sinker in this game as they were best team against sinkers in 2019.

Dodgers Probable Starter

Walker Buehler, RHP

Projected Stats (ZIPS) (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Buehler is on his way to being a top-five starting pitcher.

He has a full arsenal of nasty stuff. His fastball can top out at around 100 mph, and he knows how to use effectively. In 2019, his fastball produced a 24.6% whiff rate and 103 strikeouts.

His slider, though, is by far his best pitch. Last season, opposing hitters averaged only a .239 wOBA, and as you can see below, it's got some sick action on it.

Astros Projected Lineup

Projected Lineup (via Fantasy Labs)

The Astros were the best offense in 2019 in terms on wOBA and wRC+. How much of that was real? I'm not sure any of us will ever know.

They kept the core of their roster together for 2020 and project to be the best offense in the American League. In their opening series against the Mariners, the Astros' offense picked up right where it left off, plating 29 runs on 37 hits. However, that was against the Mariners, so Buehler will be a massive step up in competition.

Astros Projected Starter

Framber Valdez, LHP

Projected Stats (ZIPS) (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Valdez is primarily a sinkerball guy, and it wasn't very successful in 2019. Opponents hit a cool .317 off his sinker last season, and it garnered only a 16.1% whiff rate.

His only good pitch is his curveball, which is nasty. Opposing hitters got only 11 hits off it on 402 pitches last season. However, the Dodgers ranked 12th against curveballs and first against sinkers last season, so Valdez is going to have a tough time navigating their lineup.

Dodgers-Astros Bullpens

The Dodgers again rate out as one of the best bullpens in baseball in 2020. They'll come into this game a little tired, though, after being forced to pitch 10 innings over the past two days.

Outside of Ryan Pressly and Roberto Osuna, the Astros bullpen is full of average to below-average arms. They also come into the series with a tired bullpen as they've pitched 11 and 2/3rds innings over the past two games.

Dodgers-Astros Projections & Pick

With both bullpens coming in overexerted, this is the right spot to take an over.

Since I have 9.82 runs projected for this game, I am going to back Over 9 runs at +100. I'd bet it all the way up to -106.

Pick: Over 9 Runs (+100)

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