Wednesday’s MLB Over/Under: Will deGrom Own the Day in Atlanta?
Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jacob deGrom
OK, much-needed win last night with Padres-Cardinals Under 8.5, as the San Diego bullpen led the way. That’s only one, though, so let’s try to get another streak going on this Wednesday.
Zylbert’s 2018 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 44-27-2, +14.1 units
Yesterday’s Result: Padres-Cardinals Under 8.5, Strahm vs. Mikolas (WIN)
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | O/U: 8
12:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network)
Probable Pitchers: Jacob deGrom (4-1, 1.57 ERA) vs. Mike Soroka (1-1, 3.68 ERA)
I have to say, it’s very curious that the oddsmakers would open up this NL East affair with an over/under line as high as 8, considering this strong pitching matchup that could easily deliver a duel — and an under with room to spare.
But we’ll take it. After all, we have deGrom in an afternoon setting to do a lot of the lifting for this wager, and as I’ve highlighted before, the 29-year-old literally owns the best daytime ERA (1.95) in major-league history. Aside from that, opposing batters are hitting only .217 off deGrom when the sun is out. A trend that began during his rookie season of 2014 has certainly been prevalent this year, with deGrom being touched for only four runs total (three earned) in his four starts during the day.
Oh, and we certainly can’t overlook his deGromination of the Braves over the years. In fact, in 14 career meetings against Atlanta, he’s logged a 1.84 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 98/22 K/BB ratio over 88 innings. Three of those starts have come this season, in which deGrom possesses a 0.50 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and .175 BAA.
Of course, as is typical of the Mets, deGrom has no wins from those three outings to show for his remarkable efforts, as the offense continues to no-show on a regular basis. It’s been brutal without Yoenis Cespedes and even more so lately, as the Mets haven’t scored more than four runs in 11 straight games. In all but two of those, they’ve produced three runs or fewer.
That figures to bode well for top Atlanta pitching prospect Mike Soroka, who is returning today after missing about a month due to a shoulder injury. While it can be a little tricky leaning on a pitcher in his first start back from such an absence, we can take solace in the fact that Soroka already feels “awesome,” based on comments he made in regard to his rehab outings. He made two minor-league starts in preparation for his return, yielding only one run on three hits and one walk in eight innings while striking out 10.
Soroka also mentioned how his “stuff was there, crispness was there,” so if he’s on his usual game — which features a pretty high ceiling considering he was the organization’s No. 1 pitching prospect entering the campaign — we can potentially get more of what we saw from this 20-year-old the first time he faced New York. That, of course, came in his big league debut, when he held the Mets to one run in six solid innings. Even if he’s not as sharp in this assignment, a six-inning, three-run quality start would do the trick considering today’s opponent.
The line has unsurprisingly already dropped to 7.5 in some places, so make sure you get this under bet in while you still can at 8. Just do it as soon as possible and don’t think twice.
Play: UNDER 8 (-120)