The Seattle Mariners host the Cleveland Guardians on March 27, 2026. First pitch from T-Mobile Park is scheduled for 9:45 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on Apple TV+.
The Mariners are favored by -175 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Guardians are +144 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Guardians vs Mariners prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Guardians vs Mariners Prediction
- Guardians vs Mariners Pick: Under 7 (-115)
My Mariners vs Guardians best bet is on the under total runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Guardians vs Mariners Odds
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -156 | 7 -105o / -115u | +144 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +129 | 7 -105o / -115u | -175 |
- Guardians vs Mariners spread: Mariners -1.5 (+129), Guardians +1.5 (-156)
- Guardians vs Mariners over/under: 7 (-105o/-115u)
- Guardians vs Mariners moneyline: Guardians +144, Mariners -175
Guardians vs Mariners Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Gavin Williams (CLE) | Stat* | RHP George Kirby (SEA) |
|---|---|---|
| 12-5 | W-L | 10-8 |
| 1.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.4 |
| 3.06/4.29 | ERA /xERA | 4.21/3.88 |
| 4.39/4.08 | FIP / xFIP | 3.37/3.25 |
| 1.27 | WHIP | 1.19 |
| 12.8% | K-BB% | 20.6% |
| 44.7% | GB% | 44.1% |
| 101 | Stuff+ | 99 |
| 98 | Location+ | 112 |
Guardians vs Mariners Betting Preview
I like both starting pitchers, and I basically grade Logan Gilbert and Kirby the same, just as I grade Tanner Bibee and Gavin Williams the same. For Gilbert, I have a 3.25 FIP; for Kirby, a 3.36. For Bibee and Williams, I have them both at a 3.99 to 4.00.
My projected total for Thursday was 6.1; my projected total for today is 6.25.
I think there is, at most, a two-tenths of a run difference after you factor in bullpen usage, the weather differential, and so on.
I think it’s mostly the weather that is not as 'Under-friendly' today as it was yesterday. It is still quite Under-friendly in Seattle, though; temperatures are still going to be in the 40s by mid-game.
Guardians vs Mariners Pick, Betting Analysis
Looking at the adjustment of the number, I had to bet 6.5 at plus money yesterday. The Under opened at 7.5 for this game, juiced to the Under, but you could still bet 7 at -115. That is about where I like it down to.
If you are not used to betting baseball, 7 is a very key number. 7 and 9 are the key numbers in terms of betting baseball totals.
If you get to a 3-3 game, it has to land on 7 (or higher). If you get to a 4-4 game, it has to land on 9. So, with those key numbers, I am much happier to bet Under 7 or Under 7.5 than I am to take an Under 6.5.
We showed value on the Under 6.5 yesterday, but there is even more value on the Under 7 or 7.5 today. Again, it’s a very minimal adjustment in the projected total because the difference in the starters is negligible.
It’s really just a slightly better weather environment for runs tonight, but still a run-suppressing environment in general.
Take the Under 7 to about -115 between the Guardians and Mariners.
Pick: Under 7 (-115)
