Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Jon Anderson has that job for Monday, August 17.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Shane McClanahan Under 12.5 Outs (-114)
- Cristopher Sanchez Over 18.5 Outs (+106)
- Tigers Moneyline (-116)
- Mets Over 3.5 Runs (-145)
- Michael Wacha Over 18.5 Outs (+115)
- Blake Snell Under 17.5 Outs (-124)
Orioles vs Rays Picks
Shane McClanahan will return from a brief IL stint. He threw three innings on July 30th in the bigs, got hurt, and then hit the IL. Twelve days later, he threw three innings in AAA, and now he'll return to the Rays rotation as they continue their push for a division crown.
The Rays are notoriously careful with their pitchers, and the kid gloves are going to be on in a big way for Shane tonight. He threw just 30 pitches in that rehab. We're looking at 40-50 pitches max here in my opinion, and I don't think there's any chance they would consider letting him pitch in the fifth inning no matter how things are going. And yet, the outs line is set at 12.5. Go grab this one while you can!
Pick: Shane McClanahan Under 12.5 Outs (-114)
Marlins vs Phillies Picks
It's a home start for Cristopher Sanchez, and this series has big playoff implications with the Marlins just three games out of the final Wild Card spot and the Phillies holding on tightly to their spot.
The game-one advantage is massively in Philadelphia's favor. They are -235 behind Sanchez. Let's remind you about Sanchez's home/road splits this year:
at home: 1.51 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 29% K%, 6% BB%
on road: 4.07 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 7% K%, 4% BB%
I don't know what it is about Citizens Bank Park that makes him so much better, but it's a common thread in his career.
This should be considered an elite matchup for Sanchez as well. The Marlins are hitting .231/.311/.357 against lefties since July 1st with just nine homers. Kyle Stowers is on the IL. They have Otto Lopez and Xavier Edwards really struggling right now. There's just nobody to worry about for Sanchez, and I think it's going to be a classic Sanchez dominant home start.
Of course, he's priced for who he is and how good this matchup is. I don't care for his strikeout prop or the Phillies moneyline price. That's ridiculous stuff. You could go to Phillies -1.5, but the pick I'm seeing is this one:
Pick: Cristopher Sanchez Over 18.5 Outs (+106)
I don't see any Marlins bats that are going to give him trouble. They're not a super patient lineup, so Sanchez should be able to be pretty efficient here attacking them.
Tigers vs Pirates Picks
This is a very good spot for Framber Valdez. The Tigers lefty has not been dependable this year, but he's in one of his better grooves of the season with a 4.17 ERA over his last six starts. That's about as good as we can say right now. An ERA over four over a month's span. But here's a good spot for Valdez to improve on the ERA.
The Pirates this year against lefties: .245/.311/.383. That's a .694 OPS, the 12th worst in the league. It's worse over the last month at a .651 OPS and a 24.9% K%. They don't win many games when a left-handed starter opposes them.
Pitching for the Pirates is Carmen Mlodzinski, who got put back into the Pittsburgh rotation when Mitch Keller got hurt. And it hasn't worked out. He has given up nine runs on 12 hits while striking out two and walking four in two starts. He has a really low 8.6% SwStr% for the year, and he's been giving up lots of fly balls since rejoining the rotation. The stuff just doesn't work for him in a starter's role, and we're seeing that again.
The Tigers don't have a lot of offensive firepower with Riley Greene on the shelf, especially from the left side. But what they do have is a bunch of plate-discipline guys. They have the fourth-best team OBP in August, and they're #6 in the second half. They're doing that while limiting themselves to a 20% K%. So they take walks and get a lot of baseballs in play.
I really prefer the Tigers in this spot. I think Framber matches up extremely well with the Pirates, and I think the Tigers lineup will take advantage of Mlodzinski's struggles to put a few runs on his tally. I'm surprised we're getting the Tigers this close to even money even on the road.
There's a separate line I like a lot on Max Clark. The rookie stole 21 bags in the minors before getting the call-up. He has a .317 OBP in 63 MLB PAs, but has not stolen or attempted to steal a base yet. This is going to change, and it's a great betting line to take until he steals one and sends that line plummeting. There are some crazy prices out there for a Clark steal. +1700 on FanDuel, +1000 on DraftKings. Find the best price and put a little bit of cash on that.
Pick: Tigers Moneyline (-116)
Padres vs Mets Picks
The Mets are playing some good baseball of late. It's too little, too late, but they're seeing what this talented young core is capable of. Some OPS marks from their lineup since the All Star break:
- Lindor .921
- Benge .831
- Young .886
- Alvarez .847
- Bichette .777
They have been a pretty good offense. Tonight, they'll see Walker Buehler in New York. Buehler has a 5.47 ERA on the road with 1.24 HR/9 surrendered. His 10.7% K-BB% for the year shows that he's not a good Major League pitcher anymore. So I think the Mets are in for some scoring.
I have given up even trying to predict what Nolan McLean will do, so I'm just going to go to the Mets offensive side of this one and stay there.
Pick: Mets Over 3.5 Runs (-145)
Athletics vs Royals Picks
Nick Kurtz, Shea Langeliers, and Tyler Soderstrom are all on the IL now. The Athletics leave Sacramento to go into a pitcher-friendly environment in Kansas City. This projected A's lineup looks like something you should be seeing in AAA. There's no way around it, the Athletics are the worst lineup on the slate. You could argue that the Rockies are worse (they have a worse xwOBA score in my data), but since that one's in Coors, the Athletics take it.
The Athletics' lineup average xwOBA is .299. I almost never see that mark under .300. It's a truly awful unit. Just go ahead and look at the game preview and see the names of these hitters in that lineup.
The Royals would like to get some length from Wacha. Their bullpen is bad, and Wacha is the old man in the clubhouse who doesn't really need to worry about saving the arm for the future. I think it's a great spot for Wacha to get a bunch of outs against this lineup that just offers no resistance.
Pick: Michael Wacha Over 18.5 Outs (+114)
Dodgers vs Rockies Picks
The Dodgers have not been doing a great job offensively. They've been around an average offensive unit for the past several weeks. Some of that should be taken care of this week as they head into Coors Field. They'll face Tomoyuki Sugano tonight. Sugano has a 13.9% K% on the year, one of the lowest you'll ever see. He's also given up 1.9 HR/9. You could say he's been lucky to only have a 4.59 ERA (his FIP is 5.40).
It's not going to be pretty. They're a -267 favorite tonight with an over/under on the game of 10.5. That puts them at 7.6 implied runs. The team total is 6.5 with the over at -120. So they're the offense of the night, and it's not very close.
But I do hesitate to trust the Dodgers starter, Blake Snell. He's one start off the IL, and that first start went great. He struck out ten Royals and walked only one. We've seen the high highs from Snell a lot in his career, but you can usually count on some struggles coming alongside it.
Tonight he has to deal with the thin air which takes away some of the nastiness of the breaking balls. I want to bet against Snell and his big return. The bettors are thinking he's an ace right now, and on balance, he probably is, but there's going to be some clunkers in here as he gets back into big league form after missing a ton of time.
Pick: Blake Snell Under 17.5 Outs (-110)
Anderson's MLB Picks and Predictions for Monday, August 17
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Shane McClanahan Under 12.5 Outs (-114)
- Cristopher Sanchez Over 18.5 Outs (+106)
- Tigers Moneyline (-116)
- Mets Over 3.5 Runs (-145)
- Michael Wacha Over 18.5 Outs (+115)
- Blake Snell Under 17.5 Outs (-124)
