Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis for that day’s group of games.
Matt Trollo has that job for Thursday, August 20.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Cardinals/Reds Under 9 (-105), 0.53u | Bet to 8.5 (-110)
- Rays (F5) -176, 0.88u | Bet to -220
- Rays -165, 0.83u | Bet to -215
- Rays TT Over 4.5 (+115), 0.5u | Bet to -120
- White Sox +100, 1u | Bet to -135
Cardinals @ Reds Picks
Both starting pitchers in this game are running estimators in the upper fours. For Michael McGreevy, a 78.1 LOB% and four unearned runs help a 3.48 ERA disguise indicators ranging from a 4.20 xFIP to a 5.47 xERA, while allowing 10.2% Barrels/BBE with just a 10.6 K-BB%.
Brady Singer’s range is a bit tighter (4.37 xFIP – 5.13 FIP), but his 4.66 ERA is also much more indicative of the way he’s actually pitched. In fact, Singer has authored quality starts four of his last five times on the bump. He’s only exceeded six innings once (by two outs) and has allowed at least three runs in all five starts.
I have these pitchers rated identically, just a bit above four and a half.
However, BARTOLO’s projected lineups for Tuesday both average a sub-80 wRC+ against RHP this year with the Reds also adding a 79 wRC+ average at home and 75 wRC+ average over the last 30 days. The Cardinals also average a marginally better 107 wRC+ on the road and 91 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
For the early game after a night game, I’ve projected the catcher who didn’t catch on Wednesday night (which will be the theme for all of Thursday's day games). For the Reds, that doesn’t change anything with Jose Trevino behind the plate on Wednesday, but for the Cardinals, that means Pedro Pages instead of Jimmy Crooks. I can’t be too sure about that, but it doesn’t really move the needle much either way.
Defense is not Cincinnati’s strong suit either with Tyler Stephenson (-7 FRV) and Eugenio Suarez (-5) the largest offenders in a projected defense sitting at -6 Fielding Run Value altogether. In other words, not that bad outside those two.
For the Cardinals, their middle infield combination (JJ Wetherholt & Masyn Winn) have racked up 36 of the projected defense’s 37 FRV on their own. The Cardinals are the second best defensive team in the league behind the Cubs.
In one of the most power friendly parks in the league, a guy allowing as many barrels as McGreevy would be a concern and something the defense may not be able to help him much with, but RHBs only have a .296 wOBA (.330 xwOBA) against him while his barrel rate drops to a more digestible 8.8% against same-handed hitters.
The Reds rarely post lineups with more than three LHBs, which is exactly how many BARTOLO projects for Thursday.
Moving to the bullpens, the Cardinals have just the 23rd best estimators over the last 30 days (4.38 FIP, 4.47 xFIP, 4.22 SIERA) with BARTOLO ranking them the 20th best pen on the season (4.07 wFIP).
The Cincinnati bullpen is ranked all the way down at 28th (4.33 wFIP), but they also have the 7th best estimators over the last month (3.44 FIP, 4.01 xFIP, 3.48 SIERA), much better than their 4.24 ERA during this stretch.
With the run environment playing 4% above average, this might initially look like an over game, but we take 1.3% off for Hunter Wendelstedt, while the early weather range runs from -1% to +2%, which leaves us somewhere between a 2.5% to 5% overall boost to run scoring if the forecast doesn’t change much.
These offenses are not good, the Cincinnati bullpen has been pitching better than perceived and the Cardinals are the second best defensive team in the league. Despite the starting pitchers and the bullpen concerns, these lineups should be much easier to navigate than most.
Pick: Under 9 (-105), 0.53u | Bet to 8.5 (-110)
Blue Jays @ Rays Picks
Shane Bieber has now allowed two runs or less in six of his 10 game starts. but with just three quality starts and a 79 LOB%. He’s also only struck out more than 20% of the batters he’s faced in three starts and walked fewer than 10% in half.
Overall, it’s a 6.0 K-BB% with 11.5% Barrels/BBE and a 47.4 HardHit%. His 4.99 ERA is below every estimator except for a 4.88 xFIP. Batters from either side of the plate have exceeded a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him this year with RHBs at .385 and .413, respectively.
That’s where this gets even trickier than the normal day game after a night game hijinks. BARTOLO is going to naturally assume Tampa Bay’s standard lineup against RHBs, but one of the sharpest organizations in the league is more likely to jam more RHBs against Bieber's reverse split than most teams, staring with Nick Fortes, who did not catch Wednesday night’s game.
For now, BARTOLO’s projected lineup (with Fores in for Hicks) averages a 113 wRC+ against RHP with Taylor Walls (84) the low man and the only one below 90. This lineup also averages a 121 wRC+ over the last 30 days and 117 on the road. This is going to be a tough spot for Bieber, regardless of who’s in the lineup.
The Blue Jays do have a great defense going for them with 14 of their projected 22 FRV going to Andres Gimenez and another eight to Alejandro Kirk, who didn’t catch on Wednesday night.
BARTOLO projects a middle of the league bullpen in Toronto (14th 3.96 wFIP), but over the last month, they are 24th in team estimators (4.14 FIP, 4.71 xFIP, 4.59 SIERA).
Ian Seymour stretched out to six innings for the first time on June 25th, following an opener. His next two games were starts. he struck out 27 of the 65 batters he faced in those three outings, but then regressed a bit in his next two starts, which were shorter than the two following relief appearances (25%).
However, Seymour has taken off again, striking out 25 of 76 batters in three August starts.
In 65.1 innings since his first of more than two innings, Seymour is running a 24.9 K-BB%, while allowing 10.4% Barrels/BBE, but with just a 38.4 HardHit%.
BARTOLO’s projected Toronto lineup for Thursday is averaging a perfectly average 100 wRC+ against LHP, but with just a .123 ISO. That includes only Charles McAdoo (.182) and Kazuma Okamoto (.200) above .128. The former comes by that number in just 25 PA against southpaws. This lineup also averages just an 89 wRC+ on the road.
The projected Tampa Bay defense is lacking, but I surmise the Rays are fine with Junior Caminero’s -10 FRV, while the rest of the lineup is 1 FRV above average.
The Tampa Bay relief unit has the 10th best estimators in the league over the last 30 days (4.13 FIP, 3.71 xFIP, 3.68 SIERA), while BARTOLO ranks them 7th best (3.80 wFIP).
Bieber’s numbers through one-third of a full season of starts, have done little to convince me he’s a true sub-five talent right now. That doesn’t mean he won’t ever be again, but right now, I have Seymour the clear superior pitcher by around a run and a half.
I also have the Tampa Bay offense ahead of Toronto by 20 points (wRC+) for Thursday.
The Blue Jays do gain something back defensively, their only edge in this game, but the Rays even project an 8 BRR (Base Running Runs) edge and have the better bullpen whether you’re using L30 day estimators or BARTOLO’s rankings.
The Rays are already a healthy favorite in this game, but it still doesn't seem enough. I’m splitting three bets on the F5, full game and team total.
Pick: Rays (F5) -176, 0.88u | Bet to -220, Rays -165, 0.88u | Bet to -215, Rays TT Over 4.5 (+115), 0.5u | Bet to -120
Braves @ White Sox Picks
Grant Holmes is boasting a 3.82 ERA that’s at least three-quarters of a run below estimators ranging from a 4.56 xFIP to 4.91 FIP, a tight enough scope to tell you who he very probably is. His .264 BABIP and 81.2 LOB% are both career bests with a career worst 43 HardHit%.
The first five in BARTOLO’s projected lineup for the White Sox on Thursday all have a 110 or better wRC+ against RHP this season with the middle three of those above a .200 ISO too. In all, this lineup averages a 111 wRC+ against RHP, 101 wRC+ over the last 30 days and 113 at home. This is legitimately one of the better lineups in the league.
The Atlanta defense is solid with Michael Harris (10 FRV) leading a projected defense at 4 FRV.
The Atlanta bullpen is BARTOLO’s 13th ranked unit (3.90 wFIP), but have struggled to MLB’s absolute worst indicators over the last month (5.41 FIP, 4.85 xFIP, 4.13 SIERA). That's a 1.8 HR/9 for the month (2nd highest in the league) with a 12 K-BB%.
On the season, Anthony Kay has a 4.01 ERA with his underlying spectrum running from a 4.51 Bot ERA to a 5.16 dERA. The 78 LOB% is a bit high and has peaked at 84.4% over his last seven starts.
However, Kay has actually been legitimately better over this seven start span as well with a 12.5 K-BB%, 8.0% Barrels/BBE, a 4.39 xERA and 4.29 xFIP. All better numbers than Holmes has run over the same seven start block (8.6 K-BB%, 9.0% Barrels/BBE, 5.19 xERA, 4.47 xFIP).
The Braves generally leave three of their left-handed batters in the lineup against LHP (Drake Baldwin, Matt Olson and Michael Harris). They also generally hit them in the top half of the order when they do so. This projected lineup averages just an 89 wRC+ against southpaws, a 77 wRC+ over the last 30 days and an 80 wRC+ on the road.
The three LHBs are three of the five projected Braves above a 100 wRC+ against LHP this year, but Kay has stifled LHBs this season to the tune of a .248 wOBA, .264 xwOBA and 26.9 K%.
We also have a Chicago defense projected at 14 FRV with their three up the middle players (Colson Montgomery, Chase Meidroth and Tristan Peters) accounting for 24 FRV on their own.
The White Sox are BARTOLO’s 19th best bullpen (4.05 wFIP), though they’ve been more than half a run better than the Braves over the last month (3.99 FIP, 4.48 xFIP, 4.17 SIERA).
I rate the starting pitchers similarly (Kay slightly better), but give the White Sox a substantial offensive edge here that goes against perception. They also have a projected 10 FRV edge without much of a bullpen gap if you take both BARTOLO’s numbers and last 30 day estimators into consideration.
Either way, the White Sox are at home and there is nothing that comes up Braves here. The White Sox are pretty clearly favorites here for me.
Pick: White Sox +100, 1u | Bet to -135
Trollo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Thursday, August 20
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Cardinals/Reds Under 9 (-105), 0.53u | Bet to 8.5 (-110)
- Rays (F5) -176, 0.88u | Bet to -220
- Rays -165, 0.83u | Bet to -215
- Rays TT Over 4.5 (+115), 0.5u | Bet to -120
- White Sox +100, 1u | Bet to -135
