MLB Player Prop Bets & Picks: A PrizePicks Parlay for Tuesday Night’s Slate (September 21)
Tom Pennington/Getty Images. Pictured: Corey Seager.
- A pair of strikeout totals and a PrizePicks parlay highlight Tuesday's player props plays.
- Cal Quantrill of Cleveland and Eduardo Rodriguez of Boston are the pitchers to target from tonight's slate.
- Continue reading for a full betting breakdown of Tuesday's MLB player props market.
With no football on Tuesday, the betting world will shifts its eyes to the Major League Baseball slate.
The Action Network’s MLB player props team has shifted its focus to the baseball prop market, where we’ve found plenty of value. Specifically, we’ve targeted two strikeout totals using the Action Labs Player Props tool.
Additionally, we’ve found a juicy PrizePicks parlay that’s widely available across America and has the potential for a huge payout.
MLB Player Props & Picks
Cal Quantrill Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125)
|Indians vs. Royals||Indians (-150)|
|Time||6:10 p.m. ET|
I like Cal Quantrill a lot. Since entering the rotation at the end of May, he’s been as consistent as any pitcher in baseball. So far, he’s posted a 3.10 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in those 20 starts while posting a 6-2 record in decisions.
However, he is not a strikeout machine. Since entering the rotation, he’s been striking out just 7.34 batters per nine innings, and he’s cashed over 5.5 strikeouts in just five of those starts.
Now, he faces an uber-disciplined Royals lineup.
The Royals have posted the sixth-highest zone contact rate in MLB (82.2%), and as such have struck out at the fourth-lowest rate in baseball (21.2%).
And over the past six games, the Royals are striking out just 6.2 times per nine innings.
Therefore, our Action Labs Player Props tool has Quantrill recording just 5.0 punchouts tonight, while FanGraphs’ SaberSim projections have him at 4.5. There’s plenty of value in fading Quantrill against this strikeout-averse lineup.
Action Labs Grade: 7/10
Eduardo Rodriguez Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+100)
|Red Sox vs. Mets||Red Sox (-140)|
|Time||7:10 p.m. ET|
Eduardo Rodriguez has had an up-and-down season. He’s been one of the biggest regression candidates in baseball all year, and he still pairs a 5.00 ERA with a 3.67 ERA and a 3.49 xFIP.
A big reason for his lower advanced statistics is his strikeout rate. Rodriguez has never struck out batters at the rate he is now. He’s striking out 34.6% of batters faced for a total of 10.43 batters per nine innings. Plus, the Whiff rate on his four-seam, cutter and slider have all risen from 2019.
As such, E-Rod has cashed over 5.5 strikeouts in 18 of his 28 outings this season, and he’s averaged 5.9 strikeouts per start over his past 10.
Therefore, it makes sense that both the Action Labs Player Props tool and FanGraphs’ SaberSim projections have Rodriguez notching 6.2 Ks tonight.
The Mets’ offense is average against southpaws. Over the past 30 days and against LHPs, the Mets lineup has struck out at the 14th-highest rate (22.1%) while posting the 16th-highest wRC+ (99).
But Rodriguez has been striking batters out at an above-average league rate, and I like him to catch six or more in tonight’s start.
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
PrizePicks Parlay of the Day
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
- Xander Bogaerts (BOS): Over 1.5 Hits+Walks
- Matt Olson (OAK): Over 1.5 Hits+Walks
- Corey Seager (LAD): Over 1.5 Total Bases
- Eduardo Rodriguez (BOS) Over 5.5 Strikeouts
- Cal Quantrill (CLE) Under 5 Strikeouts
If you haven’t checked out PrizePicks yet, I absolutely would. It’s an incredibly unique and entertaining way to play each day’s player prop slate. I’ll briefly explain how it works here, but you should check out this article if you want to learn more.
With this five-leg parlay, you need three or more legs to hit to cash a profit. If three legs hit, you’ll profit 0.4x what you wagered; if four legs hit, you’ll profit 2x what you wagered; if all legs hit, you’ll profit a whopping 10x what you wagered.
I decided to play both of my strikeout totals together with three other position player props. Let’s quickly run through the three batters I decided to back today:
- Xander Bogaerts (BOS) Over 1.5 Hits+Walks: Through nine September games, Bogaerts has posted a 1.027 OPS with four extra-base hits and five walks. Bogaerts will face Marcus Stroman today, who Bogaerts is 11-for-36 lifetime off of with a .588 xSLG.
- Matt Olson (OAK) Over 1.5 Hits+Walks: In Olson’s 18 September games, he’s smacked 18 hits while drawing 11 walks with just 12 strikeouts. Against Marco Gonzales, Olson is 10-for-36 lifetime with five home runs and a .414 wOBA.
- Corey Seager (LAD) Over 1.5 Total Bases: Not only has Corey Seager posted a .977 OPS this month, but he’ll also hit at Coors Field tonight. He’s 10-for-21 lifetime against Rockies’ starter Antonio Senzatela, with five of those going for extra bases.