MLB Player Props: Can Nick Margevicius Strike Out 5 Pirates?

MLB Player Props: Can Nick Margevicius Strike Out 5 Pirates? article feature image
Credit:

Russell Lansford-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: San Diego Padres starting pitcher Nick Margevicius

  • Using the FantasyLabs Player Prop model, we've found value on the strikeout over/under for Nick Margevicius.

Don’t let today’s loaded sports slate foot you. There are plenty of MLB games on the schedule, offering an array of prop-betting opportunities.

Here’s my favorite strikeout prop of the day.

MLB Player Props, Saturday, May 18

  • Padres vs. Pirates: 8:40 p.m. ET

Our FantasyLabs MLB Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 11:30 a.m. ET. View live odds here.

Padres SP Nick Margevicius

The Pick: Under 4.0 (-114)

While sweating the under on four strikeouts is never fun, there are a few things to like about this prop. For starters, Margevicius hasn’t pitched above High-A ball up until now. And, he hasn’t been great this year, pitching to a 4.88 xFIP, along with a 6.75 K/9 and 17.5% strikeout rate.

 

While the Pirates have struggled against left-handed pitchers, ranking dead last in wRC+ this season, their projected lineup has a strikeout rate of just 22.6%. This should bode well for the under with the low strikeout rate Margevicius has demonstrated so far this season.

He also has worrisome Statcast data over his last two starts, allowing opposing hitters to average a 245-foot average batted-ball distance, 96-mph exit velocity and 42% hard-hit rate.

I’d bet this down to -125.