MLB Player Props: Can Hellickson Strike Out 4 Giants?
Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jeremy Hellickson.
- Using the FantasyLabs Player Prop model, we've found value on the strikeout over/unders for Jeremy Hellickson and Spencer Turnbull.
Both our props hit on Tuesday — good, great, grand, wonderful. Aaron Sanchez allowed four runs in six innings, but still managed to strike out five Twins, while Marco Estrada was lit up by the Astros to the tune of seven earned runs in 3.1 innings and only struck out one batter. I told you he’s bad…
We have ourselves a split slate on Wednesday with some games in the afternoon and some at night.
MLB Player Props, Wednesday April 17
Nationals SP Jeremy Hellickson
The Pick: Over 3.5 (-114)
On Tuesday, we cashed an over and an under on totals of 3.5. It’s an intriguing number because even the low-strikeout pitchers should be able to manage at least four Ks if they can pitch six innings. Then again, there’s no guarantee they go that far. Just ask Marco Estrada.
Facing a crappy offense certainly helps a pitcher go deep into the game, though, which is why Hellickson is looking good tonight.
We project 5.1 strikeouts for Hellickson against a Giants lineup that ranks 28th in runs scored on the year, but top 10 in strikeout rate. I would bet this into the -130 juice range, but wouldn’t bet it if the actual number moved up to 4.
There’s a very fine line between three, four and five strikeouts. I really like over 3.5, but realize that exactly four strikeouts is perhaps the most likely outcome. Is he capable of five strikeouts? Sure. Six? That’s actually what he had in his only start so far this year. But this is someone who is generally going to live in the 3-5 range, making it very important that you cash on four — not push.
Tigers SP Spencer Turnbull
The Pick: Over 4 (-120)
You might remember this chump from last week. My pick was over 4.5; he struck out the side in the first inning, which had me doing cartwheels around my mom’s basement. Fast-forward an hour later and he’s out of the ballgame with 4 innings pitched and FOUR strikeouts, conveniently one shy of cashing my bet despite the promising start. Needless to say, the cartwheels turned to expletive-filled tirades.
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice and the Jack Nicholson staring GIF makes an appearance.
His last performance has the books less bullish on Turnbull, as his over/under is down to just four on the nose.
Could he possibly strike out just three Pirates tonight? You never know with this guy, but we’re projecting 5.7.