We have our first full slate of the season with all 30 teams set to take the field. With the board so vast, edges in player prop markets are plentiful, but I've found three starting pitchers you should target.
Let's dive into my MLB player props for Saturday, March 28
MLB Player Props Saturday, March 28:
- Joe Boyle Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-154, DraftKings)
- Jacob deGrom Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-150, bet365)
- Will Warren Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+110, FanDuel)
Best Rays vs Cardinals Prop Bet
Targeting Joe's is a theme of this opening week of games, and this Saturday, we are turning our attention to Rays' starter Joe Boyle. Boyle has been thrust into the starting rotation to open the season with Ryan Pepiot on the shelf.
While Boyle showed last season that he can give the Rays multiple innings of quality work, his length is questionable entering this first start of the year. Spring Training data from Handigraphs shows that Boyle threw just 9.2 innings and faced 47 batters.
While he struck out 34 percent of those batters, it's clear that Boyle has not been stretched out enough, and his window to eclipse this strikeout total is very small.
His outs prop being at 14.5 with juice to the under is telling as it's likely we only see him get through the order one time. So, while Boyle has shown great strikeout upside, the opportunity is not there.
Fade him with confidence.
Pick: Joe Boyle Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-154, DraftKings)
Top Rangers vs Phillies Prop Picks
We move to Philadelphia, where the conditions are going to be brutal with winds swirling and temperatures in the mid-40s. They are far from ideal for an ageing Jacob deGrom who did not pitch much at all this spring.
deGrom made just two starts, for a total of five innings, and was working up to a max of 43 pitches. The angle on this is very similar to Boyle's, but deGrom's window to eclipse this total is even smaller.
Rangers' manager Skip Schumaker said that deGrom's pitch count is going to be similar to his last Spring Training outing, which means, at his most efficent, we likely only see him for three innings.
Yes, deGrom has elite strikeout upside, but him striking out seven of the first nine batters on March 28th would be a Herculean feat.
As much as it pains my orange and blue heart, fade deGrom here.
Pick: Jacob deGrom Under 6.5 (-150, bet365)
Yankees vs Giants Prop Picks
Lastly, we are heading back to San Francisco, where the New York Yankees will hand the ball to Will Warren. Warren was one of the many arms that impressed on the Yankees staff this spring.
Warren pitched to a 1.42 ERA over 25.1 innings and held a 34.1 CSW. We've known his stuff is elite, and his strikeout upside is high. However, unlike the two starters above, Warren has been stretched out and should have five innings at a minimum to get over this total.
He faces a Giants lineup that has shown they can be overpowered, as Cam Schlittler struck out eight batters in 5.1 innings of work yesterday.
Warren's total is as low as it'll be this season. Take advantage of it while you can.
Pick: Will Warren Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+110, FanDuel)
