The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Detroit Tigers on August 18, 2026. First pitch from PNC Park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SportsNet PT.
Find my MLB picks and Tigers vs Pirates prediction below.
Tigers vs Pirates Prediction
- Tigers vs Pirates Pick: Tigers F5 (51c, Kalshi)
Tigers vs Pirates Kalshi MLB Odds
Tigers vs Pirates Probable Pitchers
| Keider Montero (RHP, DET) | Stat | Braxton Ashcraft (RHP, PIT) |
|---|---|---|
| 9-7 | W-L | 12-5 |
| 2.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.9 |
| 3.22 / 3.48 | ERA / xERA | 3.88 / 3.35 |
| 3.85 / 4.65 | FIP / xFIP | 3.58 / 3.17 |
| 11.1% | K-BB% | 21.3% |
| 41.0% | GB% | 44.8% |
| .225 | BABIP | .290 |
| 94 | Stuff+ | 106 |
| 101 | Location+ | 107 |
Tigers vs Pirates MLB Preview
Keider Montero made some bullpen appearances in June before getting moved back into the rotation on July 22. I assume he’ll stay there, given the Tigers need innings after dealing Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal.
Since returning to the rotation, Montero is running a .207 BABIP, leading to severe overperformance (3.21 ERA, 5.07 xFIP, 8% K-BB). He’s due for plenty of negative regression.
Pittsburgh’s lineup is pretty deep, projecting for a 106 wRC+ against right-handed pitching.
There’s also likely to be six left-handed bats in the lineup today. In his career, Montero has a 3.81 xFIP against righties and a 5.07 xFIP against lefties.
Meanwhile, I’m a massive Braxton Ashcraft fan. I love his stuff and command (110 Pitching+), especially on his curveball (131 Stuff+ on that pitch). He’s been struggling a bit over the past month or so, mostly due to some bad homer luck (2.78 HR/9 allowed over the past seven starts).
But he bounced back in a big way in his last start against the Marlins, tossing a complete game on just 85 pitches, allowing only one run and three hits while striking out 10 on a 41% CSW rate.
I think Ashcraft will bounce back in a bigaway and finish the season strong. This is a good place to start against Detroit’s offense, which is strong at the top of the order but an absolute mess at the bottom. Ultimately, the Tigers project for a 99 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, and they’ve never seen Ashcraft before.
I really like the Pirates today. I would bet them on the full game if their bullpen didn’t get cooked over the weekend.
Pick: Tigers F5 (51c, Kalshi)
