We’re going to be trying something different at Action Network this season.
Minor League Baseball is an inefficient market. I’ve been betting on Triple-A ball since 2021, and the market has become widely available enough that I was able to provide picks to my subscribers last season — I went a documented 112-81-8 (58%) for a 51.7-unit profit.
You can still get most of my Triple-A picks over at WagerTalk, but I’m going to start publishing an Minor League baseball column here at Action Network on Tuesdays and Fridays, previewing the week and weekend ahead while providing some actionable insights.
So far this season, I'm 64-47 betting on Triple-A baseball, good for 31.7 units of profit.
Let's close the Minor League season strong.
Saint Paul Saints @ Columbus Clippers
Tuesday, 7:05 PM ET
Saint Paul is second in the International League second-half standings (27-18), but I don’t think the Saints have the manpower to finish as strong as they started.
They’ve had a loaded lineup for most of the season, but they recently lost Kaelen Culpepper to a call-up. There are still some decent bats in the order (Walter Jenkins, Ben Ross, Hendry Mendez), but I don’t think there are enough hitters to offset below-average pitching.
Columbus is a similar squad. There isn’t enough room for all the Big Leaguers in Cleveland, so guys like Kyle Manzardo and Khalil Wilson are mixed in with solid prospects like Cooper Ingle and Ralphy Velasquez.
However, the difference is that Columbus has the better rotation and bullpen in this matchup. Yet the books might price these teams close to equal.
Behind home-field advantage and better pitching, I think the Clippers play well in this series.
Pick: Columbus Clippers ML (-120, bet365 | Bet to -125)
Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp @ Memphis Redbirds
Tuesday, 7:45 PM ET
Now that Joshua Baez has been called up, I’m looking to fade Memphis.
Baez has carried the Redbirds’ offense all season — this will be my biggest one-player lineup downgrade of the entire season.
Memphis is already down a couple of other guys who were instrumental to the Redbirds winning the first-half International League title, but the Baez call-up should be the death of this team.
Meanwhile, the Marlins bolstered their Triple-A roster at the deadline, acquiring Jonathan Long and Jace Beck from the Cubs while calling up some of the better Double-A players. Throw in that there’s no room for Devysion De Los Santos on the MLB roster, and the Shrimp are loaded in the lineup.
Pick: Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp ML (-105, bet365 | Bet to -105)
Oklahoma City Comets @ Sugar Land Space Cowboys
Tuesday, 8:05 PM ET
I think Sugar Land should continue to plateau, and I’ll happily fade the Space Cowboys this week.
They’re off to a crazy 31-14 start to the second half, but they’re also just 5-5 across their past 10 games.
Also, the Cowboys offense is starting to look more like it did in the first half, when they finished 10 games under .500.
The Astros had a slew of injuries earlier this season, so Sugar Land benefited from several MLB guys all rehabbing at the same time during the start of the second half.
But Houston recently released Shay Whitcomb, who was one of the best hitters on the roster. Ronel Blanco and Hayden Wesenski are both back with the Big League club, so the rotation is very young.
The Comets experienced a dip to the start of the second half, but they’ve built a rotation with guys like Landon Knack and Gavin Stone coming off the IL. They also recently got back Ryan Ward, which means the Comets lineup is back to being loaded and deep.
If this series happened six weeks ago (with mostly the same rosters), Oklahoma City is likely a substantial road favorite in this game. Yet we can get them now at close to even money.
Pick: Oklahoma City Comets ML (-105, bet365 | Bet to -110)
Trigger's Top Triple-A Plays for Tuesday
- Columbus Clippers ML (-120, bet365 | Bet to -125)
- Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp ML (-105, bet365 | Bet to -105)
- Oklahoma City Comets ML (-105, bet365 | Bet to -110)
To keep up with any Minor League baseball bets I make, be sure to follow me in the Action Network App.
How To Bet on Triple-A Baseball
The first thing you need to understand about exploiting the Triple-A market is that it’s still a developmental league.
The players range from MLB-ready prospects to 30-plus-year-old journeymen trying to make it back to the show. You also have a handful of guys who likely top out at Triple-A but are good for organizational depth.
It’s also worth mentioning that 14 players on the Triple-A roster are also on the MLB 40-man roster, and these guys are constantly moving up and down from the big leagues.
All this makes each roster dynamic and volatile.
Bookmakers track the big names (e.g., Konnor Griffin) but can’t keep up with all the roster moves on a day-to-day basis. They also struggle to track the “developmental” aspect of everyone needing to play.
Lineups will look different day to day, and that’s primarily where I find my edge. This edge will become more pronounced as the season progresses, as I have a much greater bias toward in-season data and need a larger sample size to detect actionable wagers.
It’s worth noting that the Triple-A series consists of weekly six-game series that run Tuesday through Sunday. Additionally, every game is televised on MiLB.TV, which you can get as part of your MLB.TV subscription or directly at milb.com.
