MLB Playoff Picks, Odds for Phillies vs Braves Game 1
Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. Pictured: JT Realmuto.
- How should you bet today's Game 1 between the Phillies and Braves in the NLDS?
- A same game parlay is always a fun options, and there's a quartet of picks available that make for a profitable wager.
- Continue reading for a breakdown on how to bet this afternoon's big playoff matchup between NL East rivals.
Phillies vs. Braves Game 1 Odds
|Time||1:07 p.m. ET|
|Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
After a 2-0 sweep in the Wild Card Round, the Philadelphia Phillies head to Atlanta to take on their National League East rival Braves in Game 1 of the NLDS.
Atlanta sends out ace Max Fried while the Phillies match with a southpaw of their own in Ranger Suarez. These are two of the best offenses against left-handed pitching.
The Braves enter as heavy favorites with a total hovering around 7-7.5, depending on the sportsbook.
Here's a same-game parlay for the first game of Tuesday's slate:
The Parlay (+1742):
- Over 6.5 Runs (-174)
- J.T. Realmuto o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
- Austin Riley o1.5 Total Bases (+115)
- William Contreras to Record an RBI (+175)
Same-Game Parlay – Phillies vs. Braves Game 1
We didn't see many overs in the Wild Card Round, but this NLDS matchup is the perfect recipe for one.
While Fried was phenomenal to close the season — a 2.00 ERA in five September starts — he hasn't pitched in nearly two weeks. He also hasn't made it past the sixth inning since mid-August.
Now he draws a familiar Phillies team for the fifth time this season. In his four previous starts, Fried logged 23 innings with a 3.13 ERA and a .258 batting average against.
I expect the Phillies to scratch a few runs against Fried at the minimum on Tuesday night. And coincidentally, one of the few teams that hits LHP better than Philly is Atlanta.
The Braves are fifth in wRC+, second in wOBA and fifth in isolated power against southpaws. This is a scary Atlanta lineup that we saw tear up the Mets' pitching staff just a couple weeks ago. Now they draw Suarez in his first-ever postseason appearance?
While Suarez has been a solid third option for Philly, there have been some concerns since his dominant 2021 season. He has occasional issues with accuracy and a sub-20 percent strikeout rate. Suarez is also in the bottom half of MLB pitchers in xBA.
In five starts against Atlanta, Suarez has a 3.21 ERA across 28 innings. He also walked 12 batters.
To me, this is the perfect opportunity to jump on an over in Game 1 of the NLDS. Both offenses have plenty of experience against the two and have great numbers against left-handed pitching in general.
Because it's a same-game parlay, I'm taking the alt line of over 6.5 for an added safety cushion.
To me, this total should be closer to the 8 mark. So back the over in what should be an exciting opener in this NL East postseason bout.
JT Realmuto Over 1.5 Total Bases
Following the narrative of a high-scoring game, I'll go with a pair of total bases props to add to the parlay. The first addition is JT Realmuto, who has the most success against Fried.
The catcher is 12-for-36 with half his hits going for extra bases. While he is slightly more successful against right-handed pitching, he stills slugs .454 against southpaws.
Given his spot in the middle of the lineup, Realmuto should see at least four at-bats on Tuesday. While I normally trust Rhys Hoskins against lefties, I'm going with the more consistent Realmuto given his previous success against Fried.
For what it's worth, Hoskins is 5-for-29 against Fried lifetime.
Austin Riley Over 1.5 Total Bases
Austin Riley hasn't missed a beat after a dominant 2021, finishing the season with a 38 home runs, 39 doubles and a 142 wRC+.
Staying on the topic of success against the opposing starting pitcher, Riley is 5-for-12 with a pair of doubles against Suarez. The only player on Atlanta with more success is William Contreras, but I'm staying with the reliable Riley here.
Riley's splits are staggering against left-handed pitching. Against righties, he has a 125 wRC+ and slugs .483. Southpaws? Those numbers jump to an incredible 196 and .671, respectively.
All it takes is one extra base hit — 79 of Riley's 168 hits have been just that — so I trust the 25-year-old in Atlanta's first postseason game since its World Series win.
William Contreras to Record an RBI
I touched on this briefly in Riley's blurb, but Contreras has the best history against Suarez.
In 14 at-bats against the southpaw, Contreras has six hits, two of which were home runs. With a 1.286 OPS, it's hard to pass up Contreras' RBI prop at this price.
Contreras normally hits sixth in this Atlanta offense, behind Matt Olson, and should have plenty of opportunities with runners in scoring position. Like Riley, his splits are drastic.
Against left-handed pitching, Contreras hits .354 with a 1.036 OPS. Given the daunted first five of this Braves lineup, I love this prop as the last leg to juice the odds of the same-game parlay.