MLB PrizePicks Today, Featuring Matt Olson & Ryan McMahon (Tuesday, June 6)
Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images. Pictured: Matt Olson.
We have a stacked 15-game MLB slate on Tuesday, which means there are plenty of entries to sift through on PrizePicks.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: you can combine up to five different player squares to pay out up to 10x your entry.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money if you don’t nail every pick. A Power Play is all-or-nothing.
Here’s how I would approach Tuesday's MLB slate.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player picks in which you combine two or more entries together.
Matt Olson Fantasy Score More Than 8
The first installment of this three-game NL East series gets underway on Tuesday evening with the first-place Atlanta Braves hosting the third-place New York Mets. Right-hander Carlos Carrasco takes the mound for New York, and he should be a good candidate to fade.
Through six starts, Carrasco is 2-2 with a 5.75 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. His underlying metrics are even more concerning than those surface-level stats. Carrasco ranks in the 28th percentile or lower in Average Exit Velocity, xERA/xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, K% and Whiff%.
The first Atlanta hitter to back is Matt Olson.
After failing to surpass this figure in each of his past five games, now is the perfect time to buy low on Olson. His power numbers are still tremendous as he boasts a .518 SLG and .879 OPS with 17 dingers. Olson's metrics suggest even better outings are ahead in that department — he's produced a .527 xSLG.
This tick up in performance could come against Carrasco; Olson owns a .417 BA, 1.083 SLG and .619 wOBA with two homers in 13 career plate appearances against the right-hander.
Ronald Acuna Jr. Fantasy Score More Than 9.5
The other Braves hitter to back is Ronald Acuna Jr., who certainly needs no introduction. Putting together an MVP-caliber season, Acuna boasts a .331 BA, .564 SLG and .971 OPS.
His underlying metrics are almost laughable, ranking in the 98th percentile or higher in Average Exit Velocity, xwOBA, xBA and xSLG. While 9.5 is a monster number, it is deserved — Acuna has surpassed it in three of his past four games.
The hot streak should continue against Carrasco. In 11 career plate appearances against the Mets starter, Acuna possesses a .375 BA, 1.000 SLG and .587 wOBA with one homer and two doubles.
Ryan McMahon Fantasy Score Less Than 8.5
There is a "tax" that PrizePicks tries to make players pay if you want to take the "more than" on a Rockies hitter at Coors Field. We are going to take advantage of that and go the other direction against right-hander John Brebbia and the San Francisco bullpen.
Slated to open this game is Brebbia, who is 2-0 with a 3.80 ERA and 1.06 WHIP through 25 appearances. His underlying metrics are even better, ranking in the 88th percentile or higher in xERA/xwOBA, xBA, xSLG and K%. The rest of the Giants bullpen can hold their own as the unit ranks in the top 12 of the league in ERA, WHIP and K/9.
The first Colorado hitter to fade is Ryan McMahon.
In six career plate appearances against Brebbia, McMahon is hitless with two strikeouts. McMahon definitely possesses some pop, so the long ball is our greatest threat for this entry staying below 8.5.
With that said, that is his most likely avenue for surpassing this figure as he ranks in the 43rd percentile or lower in xBA, K% and Whiff%.
Charlie Blackmon Fantasy Score Less Than 7.5
The other Rockies hitter to fade is Charlie Blackmon, who has stayed below this number in two of his last three outings. Like McMahon, Blackmon is hitless against Brebbia (three strikeouts in four career plate appearances).
Blackmon's underlying metrics are not very worrisome — he ranks in the 32nd percentile or lower in Average Exit Velocity, HardHit% and Barrel%.
This is where that 7.5 number is important, as a single or two still keeps him beneath that figure.