Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis for that day’s games.
Kev has that job for Friday, August 28.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Houston Astros vs. New York Mets — Over 8 (-103)
- Minnesota Twins ML (-118)
- St. Louis Cardinals ML (-102)
Houston Astros vs New York Mets
Hunter Brown has not been Hunter Brown since returning from his shoulder injury. He has a 3.96 ERA, backed by a 4.17 xERA, 5.20 FIP, and 4.39 xFIP since his June 16 return.
Through his past three starts against the Athletics, Mariners, and Giants, he has a 3.45 ERA, backed by a 4.65 xERA, 6.02 FIP, and 4.78 xFIP. Hunter Brown is a mediocre SP this season, being carried by luck.
Meanwhile, Christian Scott is experiencing a quiet breakout season. His 3.73 ERA is backed by quality peripherals all below 4.00. He also has a better home ERA (3.38) than on the road (3.98).
However, he has a putrid 6.30 ERA in August. This ERA is inflated by bad luck, but he is potentially declining as the season closes after missing all of 2025. Scott has pitched 103 innings this year and may be gassed.
The Astros have the 8th-best offense in the past month (105 wRC+), while the Mets have the 15th-best (100 wRC+).
Also, the Astros may be without their top-two left-handed relievers, Josh Hader and Steven Okert, as both have pitched three times in the past five days.
New York is finally looking respectable, even without star OF Juan Soto. The return of Francisco Lindor and Luis Robert Jr. rejuvenated this formerly stagnant offense, making an over in today's matchup viable.
Pick: Over 8 (-103)
Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins
Luis Castillo was excellent in his June 12 start against the Cincinnati Reds. He posted 10 K in 7 IP, allowing 1 hit, 2 walks, and 0 ER. This start looked like a new era for the former ace, but it may have just been a blip against the league's worst offense against RHP.
In his two starts since this incredible outing, Castillo has allowed 7 ER, 16 hits, and 2 walks in 7 1/3 IP. He struck out four total batters in this span against the Mets and Cubs.
Castillo now faces a Twins offense that ranks sixth against RHP this season (105 wRC+). Minnesota may be without star OF Byron Buxton, but he is ice-cold since returning from IL on August 13 (61 wRC+).
The Twins have a solid lineup throughout the order and can punish Castillo's mistakes. Furthermore, the Twins are starting reformed SP Dean Kremer.
Kremer was a trade deadline addition who has improved since the deal to Minnesota. He has a 3.18 ERA, backed by a 3.30 xERA and 3.98 xFIP in four starts with the Twins.
While Kremer has flashed excellence for spurts before, he is pitching with a notable change in groundball rate from 33% with the Orioles to 45.6% with the Twins.
45.6% would be a career-high GB% for Kremer if he can sustain it. He finished a season above 40% once (2024).
The Chicago White Sox offense is the best in baseball through the past two weeks, but they are getting no help from star hitters Colson Montgomery and Munetaka Murakami. Tristan Peters' fluky output is carrying them this week.
Chicago's offense is also much better at home (110 wRC+) than on the road (101). The same is true for the Twins, giving them a slight advantage.
Both teams have fresh bullpens, but the White Sox will likely have to call upon theirs sooner.
Pick: Twins ML (-118)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals
Jared Jones is having an unlucky season. His 4.76 ERA is backed by a 3.68 xERA, 3.87 xFIP, and 3.75 SIERA. Unfortunately, he is struggling in every aspect in recent starts.
Jones in August: 7.88 ERA, 5.79 xERA, 5.03 xFIP, 9.9% K-BB, 2.00 WHIP
After missing all of 2025, similar to the aforementioned Christian Scott, he may be running out of steam as the season winds down. Jones has thrown 86 2/3 IP after throwing 0 between the minors and MLB last season.
On the opposing mound, Quinn Matthews is making his fourth start of the season, yet this will be his first home start as a professional. His gaudy 6.43 ERA through 14 IP is backed by a 3.12 xERA, 4.77 xFIP, and 4.74 SIERA.
Matthews is a talented SP who has had bad luck, especially in his most recent start in Philadelphia. He allowed 7 ER on 10 hits, without allowing a home run or walk.
He will be facing a Pirates offense that ranks fourth-worst against LHP this season (85 wRC+) and is the worst in baseball this past month (72 wRC+).
The Cardinals rank league average in this span, making up for their 94 wRC+ against RHP this season. Their main concern today is a limited bullpen.
High-leverage relievers George Soriano and Riley O'Brien have pitched in back-to-back games, while Justin Bruihl and Gordon Graceffo combined for 79 pitches on Thursday.
Luckily, Matthews can pitch deep into games. He has six starts with at least six innings pitched since June and has reached seven innings in two starts since July.
If Matthews can get rolling and keep his pitch count low early, the Cardinals should be able to handle this game despite the bullpen disadvantage.
Picks: Cardinals ML (-102)
Kev's MLB Picks and Predictions for Friday, August 28
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Houston Astros vs. New York Mets — Over 8 (-103)
- Minnesota Twins ML (-118)
- St. Louis Cardinals ML (-102)
