We have a stacked 16-game MLB slate on Tuesday, which means there are plenty of entries to sift through on PrizePicks.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: you can combine up to five different player squares to pay out up to 10x your entry.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play provides lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. A Power Play is all-or-nothing.
Here’s how I would approach Tuesday's MLB slate.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player picks in which you combine two or more entries together.
Nolan Arenado Fantasy Score Less Than 7
The Tampa Bay Rays host the St. Louis Cardinals in the first installment of a three-game interleague series.
Right-hander Zach Eflin takes the mound for Tampa Bay and he should be a good candidate to back. Through 21 starts, Eflin is 12-6 with a 3.46 ERA and 1.00 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are also strong as he ranks in the 66th percentile or higher in Average Exit Velocity, HardHit%, xERA/xwOBA, xBA and xSLG.
The first St. Louis hitter to fade is Nolan Arenado. While Arenado has put together a strong campaign, he has recorded seven or fewer fantasy points in nine of his past 10 games.
Over that stretch, he possesses a mere .205 BA, .333 SLG and .595 OPS. This poor hitting could continue against Eflin, especially considering that Arenado's splits have taken a roughly 9% dip when facing right-handed pitching since 2021.
Paul Goldschmidt Fantasy Score Less Than 7.5
The other Cardinals hitter to fade is Paul Goldschmidt.
Like Arenado, Goldschmidt has put together a strong campaign. However, also like Arenado, he enters this game in poor form, recording seven or fewer fantasy points in eight of his past 10 games.
Over that stretch, Goldschmidt possesses a fade-worthy .211 BA, .237 SLG and .523 OPS. It would not be shocking if this slump continues against Eflin, a pitcher whom Goldschmidt is just 2-for-13 against in his career, with two singles.
Yandy Diaz Fantasy Score More Than 7
We're also going to back a couple of Tampa Bay hitters in this contest, starting with Yandy Diaz.
Right-hander Miles Mikolas takes the mound for St. Louis and he should be a good fade candidate. Through 24 starts, the veteran is 6-7 with a 4.29 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP.
Underlying metrics suggest that positive regression is unlikely. Mikolas ranks in the 28th percentile or lower in Average Exit Velocity, xERA/xwOBA, xBA and xSLG.
Diaz has been a hitting machine this season, boasting a .315 BA, .508 SLG and .906 OPS. Possessing some of the best analytics in baseball, he ranks in the 92nd percentile or higher in Average Exit Velocity, HardHit%, xwOBA and xBA.
Wander Franco Fantasy Score More Than 7.5
In a play with solid correlation, we're going to back the guy who hits directly behind Diaz: Wander Franco.
Entering this series in great form, Franco has recorded eight or more fantasy points in seven of his past nine games. Over that stretch, he boasts a .389 BA, .778 SLG and 1.241 OPS with four home runs.
Considering his tremendous form, it would not be shocking if he keeps things rolling against the fade-worthy Mikolas.
