MLB PrizePicks Today, Tuesday, May 2, Featuring Pete Alonso, Luis Arraez, More
Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images. Pictured: Pete Alonso.
- With 15 games on the MLB slate, there’s a lot to pick from on PrizePicks.
- Our MLB expert is bullish on a number of NL East hitters, including Pete Alonso, Luis Arraez, Starling Marte and Jazz Chisholm Jr.
- Continue reading for analysis and picks below.
We have a stacked 15-game Major League Baseball slate on Tuesday, which means there are plenty of entries to sift through on PrizePicks. A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: you can combine up to five different player squares to payout up to 10x your entry.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money if you do not nail every pick. A Power Play is all-or-nothing.
Here’s how I would approach Tuesday’s MLB slate.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player picks in which you combine two or more entries together.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Hitter Fantasy Score More Than 8
The Miami Marlins host the Atlanta Braves in the first game of a three-game NL East series. Slated to take the mound for Atlanta is right-hander Bryce Elder.
Through five starts, Elder is 2-0 with a 2.17 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. While those surface-level stats are strong, his underlying metrics suggest massive regression for the 23-year-old. This year, Elder ranks in the 31st percentile or lower in xERA/xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, and HardHit%.
The first Miami hitter we are backing in this contest is outfielder Jazz Chisholm Jr.
Entering this game in terrific form, Chisholm has blown past this number in five of his last six games. This strong stretch of hitting could continue against Elder, a guy Chisholm has homered against.
In six career plate appearances against the right-hander, Chisholm boasts a .389 xBA, .855 xSLG and .553 xwOBA. When facing right-handed pitching since 2021, his splits jump by roughly 38% to a smooth .264 BA, .494 SLG and .821 OPS.
Additionally, Chisholm is always a massive threat to swipe a bag. He’s currently tied for second in the NL with 11.
Luis Arraez Hitter Fantasy Score More Than 7.5
The other Marlins hitter to back is Luis Arraez, who is off to a monster start in 2023. Through 23 games, Arraez leads the league with a ridiculous .427 BA while boasting a terrific .549 SLG and 1.044 OPS.
His underlying metrics are also outstanding, ranking in the 90th percentile or higher in xwOBA, xBA, K% and Whiff%.
Since 2021, Arraez’s splits take a roughly 21% jump when facing right-handers to a .331 BA, .433 SLG and .823 OPS. Arraez has surpassed this number in three of his last four games.
Starling Marte Hitter Fantasy Score More Than 7.5
Following Monday’s doubleheader, the New York Mets travel to Detroit to take on the Tigers for a three-game Interleague series. Slated to take the mound for Detroit is right-hander Michael Lorenzen.
Through three starts, Lorenzen is 0-1 with a troubling 7.07 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. His underlying metrics suggest that positive regression is unlikely, ranking in the 30th percentile or lower in xERA/xwOBA, xSLG, Barrel% and HardHit%.
The first Mets hitter to back is Starling Marte. While Marte has not had a tremendous season as of yet, his underlying metrics suggest that positive regression is looming.
Currently, Marte ranks in the 61st percentile or higher in xwOBA, xBA and K%. This positive regression could come against Lorenzen, a pitcher Marte has previously homered against.
In 22 career plate appearances against Lorenzen, Marte boasts a .353 BA, .647 SLG and .451 wOBA. When facing right-handed pitching since 2021, his splits illuminate an impressive .298 BA, .448 SLG and .813 OPS.
Additionally, Marte is always a threat to swipe a bag, with eight through the first 24 games.
Pete Alonso Fantasy Score More Than 8
In a play with solid correlation, we are going to back the guy who hits two spots behind Marte in the Mets’ batting order. Tied for first in the league in home runs with 11, Pete Alonso has posted a .248 BA, .558 SLG and .878 OPS.
His underlying metrics suggest that further positive regression could be likely. This season, Alonso boasts a .289 xBA, .608 xSLG and .408 xwOBA.
When facing right-handed pitching since 2021, Alonso has generated a .273 BA, .513 SLG and .855 OPS with 57 home runs.
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