Saturday MLB Player Props Picks, Best Bets: Fade Mitch Haniger vs. Justin Verlander (April 16)
Steph Chambers/Getty Images. Pictured: Mitch Haniger.
- Today's MLB slate is loaded with potential value on the player props market.
- Jameson Taillon against the Orioles and Mitch Haniger against the Astros has caught the eye of our analyst.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown and betting picks from Saturday's player props slate.
As the season goes along and pitchers slowly becoming more stretched out, the data points for props become more valid.
With pitchers entering their second outings of the year, we should start to see their numbers regress towards the mean. That goes not only for their results but the results of the batters they will face.
Today, we have two sizable batter versus pitcher matchups to take advantage of as well as a starter who has dominated his divisional rival.
Jose Abreu to Record 2+ Total Bases (-105)
|Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chicago White Sox||White Sox -135|
|First Pitch||2:10 p.m. ET|
It certainly helps when the largest batter versus pitcher sample size is telling. This one says that Jose Abreu loves to hit against Corey Kluber. These two have matched up 57 times, and Abreu has gotten the better of Kluber on multiple occasions.
Overall, Abreu is hitting .340 with a .438 wOBA against Kluber. Of the 18 hits that Kluber has allowed to Abreu, five of them have been homers.
There will be strong wins blowing out to left-center today in Chicago. If Abreu’s success continues, we should see another Kluber offering leave the yard.
Pick: Jose Abreu 2+ total bases
Jameson Taillon Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-130)
|New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles||Yankees -180|
|First Pitch||7:05 p.m. ET|
The Orioles will likely often be a team to attack with pitcher strikeout props. Through the first week of games, they are second in the league in strikeout percentage. However, now they get squared up with a divisional foe who had a ton of success against them last season.
The 2021 season had to feel like a victory for Taillon, as he made 29 starts and posted a career-high 8.73 K/9. What helped bolster that K/9 rate was the two starts Taillon made against the Orioles. In April of last year, Taillon racked up seven punchouts over 4 2/3 innings and followed it up with 10 strikeouts over 6 1/3 innings in June.
While Taillon is not considered an elite strikeout guy, his season debut against a formidable Toronto lineup indicated that his uptick from last year is no fluke. He set down six Blue Jays on strikes over five innings.
Heading into this second start, everything sets up for results similar to his two starts against Baltimore from last season. He should cruise past this total if we can get another five innings out of Taillon.
Our Action Labs projection for him is 5.4, although it is possible that he may even surpass that number as well.
Pick: Jameson Taillon Over 4.5 Strikeouts -130
Action Labs Grade: 7/10
Mitch Haniger Under 0.5 Hits (-110)
|Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners||Astros -150|
|First Pitch||9:10 p.m. ET|
There’s good news and bad news within this selection. The good news is that Justin Verlander is back, and we all get to see one of the best right-handers of this generation compete once again. The bad news, at least for Mitch Haniger, is that Justin Verlander is back.
Haniger has one of the many hitters that has career-long struggles against Verlander. Over 16 at-bats, Haniger has just three hits with a 37.5% K-rate.
Verlander has done a tremendous job of exposing Haniger’s issues with right-handers as he has been significantly worse against them in his career. Overall, his batting average is 22 points worse, and his ISO is .07 lower against righties versus lefties.
Lastly, it does not help Haniger that he is playing in his home park as T-Mobile Park is historically a great pitchers park. Nearly every type of offensive result occurs below the major league average there.
With external factors not helping him against a pitcher who has had his number, it should be a quiet day for Haniger.
Pick: Mitch Haniger Under 0.5 Hits -110