Monday MLB Player Props, Predictions: Value on Shohei Ohtani, Carlos Rodon (April 20)
AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin. Pictured: Shohei Ohtani
- Doug Ziefel uses the Action Labs Player Prop tool to break down some of his favorite MLB props for Wednesday.
- He is eying three props, including a play on Shohei Ohtani.
- Check out his picks and analysis below.
After a loaded Tuesday night, the MLB slate is dialed back on Wednesday as many teams are looking to end their weekday series on a high note. Today I’ve pinpointed two starters who have impeccable stuff and have put hitters away at a high rate, but it remains to be seen if they can continue their success.
Along with them, there’s also another pitcher to target, but he’ll be tasked with an old nemesis who is due for some revenge. Let’s break down the three best prop plays for tonight’s slate.
Sean Murphy Over 1.5 Total Bases (+135)
|Baltimore Orioles vs. Oakland A’s||A’s -126|
|First Pitch||6:07 p.m. ET|
Jordan Lyles is a guy to pick on in this matchup, as we have seen two different versions of him in each start this season. In his first start, Lyles got roughed up by the Rays but then followed that up with five innings of one-run ball against the Yankees.
Despite the solid outing against New York, Lyles is still one of the harder-hit pitchers in the league. As a result, he is in the bottom 15 percent of the league in expected batting average. That is directly due to his average Exit Velocity of 90.8, which is in the bottom third of all qualified pitchers.
Take that and add it to Sean Murphy’s past performance against Lyles. For his career, he’s batting .313 with a .563 SLG; however, he is expected to be batting .373 and slugging .858.
Those impressive stats are due to the launch angle that Murphy has maintained when he’s made contact against Lyles. His average exit velocity and launch angle should have equated to many more extra-base hits. Given the power we have seen him display and the hard contact that Lyles has allowed so far this season, Murphy is due for some extra bases.
Pick: Over 1.5 Total Bases +135
Shohei Ohtani Over 5.5 Strikouts (-105)
|Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros||Angels -125|
|First Pitch||6:40 p.m. ET|
Ohtani may have gotten roughed up in his last outing against the Rangers, but his stuff was still there, as despite the outing, he’s maintained a Strikeout Rate in the 89th percentile and a Whiff Rate in the 88th percentile.
In this matchup, he’ll be facing an Astros lineup that has done a great job of putting the ball in play as they have the third-lowest Strikeout Rate in the majors.
However, Ohtani faced this same Astros lineup on Opening Day and carved them up. He racked up nine strikeouts in four and two-thirds innings and had a 44 percent Whiff Rate. While that type of performance will be hard to repeat, he can certainly get close to it and still set down plenty of Astros. Keep in mind that Ohtani still had five punchouts in his last outing, so getting over this number against a team that has struggled against him in the past is likely.
Action Labs also likes the over as they have them pegged for 6.3 strikeouts.
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
Pick: Over 5.5 Strikeouts -105
Carlos Rodon Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-130)
|San Francisco Giants vs. New York Mets||Giants -120|
|First Pitch||7:10 p.m. ET|
You could not ask for a better start from Carlos Rodon if you are a Giants fan. He has been nearly untouchable as he has racked up 21 strikeouts over his first two starts.
However, this start may play out very differently than his first two. He’ll be on the road against the New York Mets, who happen to have the sixth-lowest Strikeout Rate in the league so far this season. The Mets are going to throw quite a few quality right-handed bats at him, such as Francisco Lindor, who’s hit .313 in his career against Rodon. He’ll also have to look out for Pete Alonso and J.D. Davis, who have tremendous splits against left-handers.
The final factor here is the weather. It will be a brisk night at Citi Field, with temperatures in the upper 40s by first pitch. Pitching in the cold is never an easy task, and it could impact Rodon’s ability to grip the ball.
Overall, Rodon is due for some regression in the strikeout department, and this is a tough lineup to set down in general. This may be a sweat, but Rodon should go under this number.
Pick: Under 7.5 Strikeouts -130