MLB Props Today | Odds, Picks for Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge on Thursday, April 27
Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Judge
On Tuesday, our slate was reduced to two after Logan Gilbert was scratched from his scheduled. Gilbert did cash his strikeout prop against Philadelphia Wednesday, but unfortunately for us a day late.
We earned a split after Joe Ryan struck out seven Yankees, but a rough fifth inning caused Drew Rasmussen to land one strikeout short.
Today is shaping up as a great day for baseball with games all day. I am back with three plays for today, targeting two pitchers and two MVPs. Let's begin in Chicago.
MLB Player Props For Thursday, April 27
Hayden Wesneski Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (-145)
| Padres vs. Cubs | |
| First Pitch | 2:20 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Aside from Xander Bogaerts, the much ballyhooed Padres lineup has gotten off to a slow. Manny Machado, Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis Jr. (just a week for him) are all hitting below .225 with an OPS under .700. As a team, they have .216 batting average and are averaging 3.7 runs per game. However, today could be a chance for an offensive breakout against Cubs right-hander Hayden Wesneski.
The 25-year old has gotten off to a rocky start as he is 1-1 with a 6.23 ERA. He has only thrown 17 1/3 innings and has gotten out of the fifth inning in just one of his four starts. In three of his starts, he has allowed three runs or fewer. However, more important for us, he has allowed five hits in every start.
This season, Wesneski has not missed many bats. He is in the 69th percentile in hard hit allowed percentage (34%) and 11th percentile in both strikeout percentage (15%) and whiff percentage. The Padres are coming off a 5-3 win last night, but were shut out in game one of this series on Tuesday. However, the great thing about this prop is we don't need the Padres to score — although it would help.
For example, if the Padres load the bases with two or three hits early off Wesneski, we'll be 40-60% of the way to getting this over. We need just the hits to come in Wesneski's first couple of trips through the Padres lineup.
Pick: Hayden Wesneski Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (-145)
Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Walks (+115)
| Athletics vs. Angels | |
| First Pitch | 4:07 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Shohei Ohtani has routinely dominated the Oakland Athletics throughout his career. We cashed on his strikeouts on Opening Day when he recorded 10 in six innings. While I do think he goes over his strikeouts prop (8.5), at -130 the value is not great considering he has had eight or less in three of his last four starts. However, because I expect a good outing from Ohtani, I also like his walks prop.
In his first start against Oakland, Ohtani walked three and had to exit perhaps a little early after throwing 93 pitches in six innings. The A's patience paid off as they were able to rally against the Angels' bullpen once Ohtani left the game. Oakland is 16th in walk percentage, drawing walks in 9% of their plate appearances.
Overall, Ohtani has gone over this line in four of his five starts with the miss being his rain-shortened start against Boston. From watching a few of Ohtani's starts this season, I noticed that he can take a little while to settle in and walk a batter or two early. That is not uncommon for great pitchers. Two walks in the first inning would give us an early cash. However, I expect Ohtani to go deep into this game.
He has gone six innings in two starts and seven innings in two other starts, averaging 24.5 batters faced in those starts. Ohtani has walked 15 batters in 28 innings this season. If he faces 25 batters today, I'll take plus odds for him to walk two.
Pick: Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Walks (+115)
Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Strikeouts (-120)
| Yankees vs. Rangers | |
| First Pitch | 8:05 p.m. |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
The New York Yankees have been a heavy strikeout team over the last few seasons, which is why I targeted Joe Ryan on Tuesday night. New York's strikeout percentage goes down to 21% against left-handers compared to 25% against right-handers. It is not surprising that a predominantly right-handed hitting lineup is better against lefties. However, the best right-handed hitter and reigning AL MVP is the notable exception.
Aaron Judge is hitting .301 with all of his six home runs and a .997 OPS against right-handed pitchers. Against left-handers this season, he is 2-for-17 (.118) with nine strikeouts. While the sample size is very small, Judge also had those splits last season. Tonight, Judge will face his former teammate Andrew Heaney.
Against Heaney, Judge is 1-for-7 (.143) with a home run and seven five strikeouts. It would be nice if Heaney struck Judge out in his first two at-bats and cashed this around the fourth inning. However, a strikeout by a Rangers reliever would help too. Judge is tied for fourth in the league with 33 strikeouts. He already has struck out twice 11 times in 25 games this season. There is a good chance he pushes that number to 12 with tonight's matchup.
Pick: Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Strikeouts (-120)
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