MLB Player Prop Picks Today | Cody Bellinger, Griffin Canning & More (Tuesday, July 25)
Photo by Quinn Harris/Getty Images. Pictured: Cody Bellinger (Cubs)
Baltimore took game one of its series in Philadelphia, 3-2, thanks to a clutch two-out double in the ninth inning by rookie Colton Cowser.
However, the Phillies were able to work a couple of walks off Dean Kremer. They may be able to get a couple off Kyle Gibson, as well.
Detroit will continue its homestand against California teams after splitting the first four with the Padres and Giants. Tonight, the Angels will be in the Motor City with Griffin Canning getting the start. He'll look to continue his recent hot streak with strikeouts.
Cody Bellinger has been one of the hottest hitters in the game of late. He'll look to stay hot as his Cubs head to the South Side to battle the rival White Sox.
MLB Player Props For Tuesday, July 25
Kyle Gibson Over 1.5 Walks (-125)
|Orioles vs. Phillies|
|First Pitch||6:40 p.m. ET|
With a WHIP of 1.36, it's clear that Gibson often pitches with a ton of traffic on the base paths. He's allowed 124 hits and 40 walks in 121 innings this season.
Today, I'm going to focus on the walks.
Gibson has walked two batters in five of his last seven starts and 14 of 21 this season. Tonight, he'll face a Phillies lineup that's 19th in Walk Rate against right-handed pitchers.
However, they do average three walks per game. Two of them may come from Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper. Schwarber has a 14.5% Walk Rate and is third in MLB with 66 walks. Harper has a 13.3% Walk Rate. Schwarber and Harper are well above the league average (8.4%) while Brandon Marsh has an 11% Walk Rate, as well.
However, I also like this prop because Gibson is an innings eater for the Orioles. He's averaging nearly six innings per start.
Ideally, he'll walk two batters early in the game and give us a quick cash. However, with six innings, he'll face 20+ batters, and it's likely that he issues walks to at least two of them.
Pick: Kyle Gibson Over 1.5 Walks
Griffin Canning Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+112)
|Angels vs. Tigers|
|First Pitch||6:40 p.m. ET|
Per Statcast, Canning is above average in Strikeout Rate, Whiff Rate and Chase Rate. That's helped him pile up the strikeouts over the past month. Over his past five starts, he's struck out seven or more batters four times. That includes a career-high 12 strikeouts in his last start against the Yankees.
Against the Yankees, the changeup was key for Canning, as has been the case for him all season. Canning's changeup is +7 in run value and has been the ninth-best changeup among qualified pitchers.
Canning will look to use his changeup (and the rest of his arsenal) to take advantage of a plus matchup against Detroit.
The Tigers are fifth in Strikeout Rate against right-handed pitchers and 28th in wRC+. If Canning keeps the Tigers' offense in check, that'll help him stay in the game longer and pile up more strikeouts. He's struck out nine in three starts this season.
FanDuel has Canning at +420 for nine strikeouts, and you can also take him for 11 strikeouts at +1400 if he has another career night.
Pick: Griffin Canning Over 6.5 Strikeouts
Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + Runs Batted In (-125)
|Cubs vs. White Sox|
|First Pitch||8:10 p.m. ET|
The Cubs have won three games in a row and six of their last 10. They're now just five games back of the final wild card spot in the National League.
If they're on the fence about selling, Bellinger is making their decision a lot harder with how he's performed over the last month. In July, Bellinger has a hit in 16 of his last 18 games. He's hitting .452 with seven home runs, 22 runs batted in and a 1.270 OPS.
I was debating whether to take Bellinger's total bases or this combo tonight. While I like both, Bellinger has hit this line in eight of 10 games and 21 of his last 30 games.
Comparatively, he's had two total bases in 15 of 30 games. He's averaging 2.6 hits + runs + runs batted in per game this season.
Bellinger will face Michael Kopech tonight, against whom he's struck out in two at-bats. However, he's hitting .302 with seven home runs, 25 runs batted in and a .840 OPS against right-handed pitchers. Kopech has allowed eight of his 19 home runs to left-handed bats.
Additionally, Kopech has walked four batters in four of his last five starts and at least three in all five. The Cubs are fourth in walk rate against right-handed pitchers. That means Bellinger likely will have a teammate on base for him to drive in, and if he gets walked by Kopech, he'll be able to score a run.
That'll help get Bellinger to the two combined hits +runs + runs batted in needed to cash this combo.