MLB Player Props: Wednesday Picks for Cody Bradford, Dylan Cease
Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images. Pictured: Cody Bradford (Rangers)
Wednesday is a getaway day for many teams across the big league circuit, which means we have daytime baseball on tap. I've dialed in on three starters for this slate, and the first one is in the opening game.
So, let's dive right into our top MLB player props for Wednesday, April 10.
In his first two starts of the season, it appears we've seen both the best and the worst of Dodgers' starter Bobby Miller.
Miller was electric and nearly unhittable in his first start.
Then, in his second against Chicago, he struck out the side in the first. However, he wouldn't make it out of the second inning, as he allowed five runs on four hits and walked two.
Miller is primed to bounce back this afternoon against a free-swinging Twins lineup that now has the second-highest team strikeout rate in baseball after Tyler Glasnow recorded 14 strikeouts against them last night.
While Miller should generate plenty of swings and misses, we should also see him out there much longer than his last outing. Miller has gone over this total in 68% of his 24 career starts.
That hit rate gives us implied odds of -213, which means that he'll exceed his outs line.
Pick: Bobby Miller Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (-109)
Next, we head out west to fade a familiar face in a new place. Former Chicago White Sox ace Dylan Cease was a late offseason addition to the San Diego Padres.
Cease made each of his first two starts in a Padres uniform against the San Francisco Giants, and had similar outings in each. He looked solid in both outings, but the key here is that he didn't exceed seven strikeouts.
Cease's strikeout rate declined by three percent last season, and despite his success in San Diego thus far, it appears he still lacks the double-digit strikeout upside we once saw from him.
He's gone under this mark in 73% of his last 30 starts. That equates to implied odds of -270 that he'll go under again tonight.
Add in the fact that he'll be up against the Chicago Cubs — who rank 24th in team strikeout rate — and our Action Labs projection of just six strikeouts, and you have yourself a very strong play.
Pick: Dylan Cease Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-135)
Lastly, we're going to turn out attention to the Rangers' young lefty, Cody Bradford. Bradford has looked phenomenal in his first two starts of the season, and has an excellent matchup in front of him against the Oakland A's.
However, his strikeout line here is overinflated by the matchup and his recent success.
Bradford gets a boost by facing the A's, who hold the fourth-highest team strikeout rate in the majors.
However, we've only seen him eclipse this mark in one of his eight career starts. He's an average strikeout pitcher, according to his rate over the last two seasons, ranking in the 51st percentile. He hasn't shown a rate above that since his 13 starts in high-A ball in 2021.
While the A's are a team to target for strikeouts, many of their glaring holes are due for positive regression. Brent Rooker currently has a 51.6% strikeout rate that won't hold. That should also be said for Zack Gelof, who's at 33.3%, and Seth Brown, who is at 28.2%.
Back the under here, as the A's aren't being given enough respect tonight.
Pick: Cody Bradford Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-165)
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