MLB Same-Game Parlay for Wednesday, August 31: Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox (August 31)
Quinn Harris/Getty Images. Pictured: Chicago White Sox outfielder A.J. Pollock
- A successful same-game parlay often relies on correlated events.
- Wednesday's Royals vs. White Sox game provides such an opportunity.
- Nicholas Martin explains why he expects the White Sox – and some key players – to break out of a slump.
Royals vs. White Sox Odds
|White Sox Odds||-200|
|Over/Under||8.5 (-106 / -114)|
|Time||8:10 p.m. ET|
|Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
When we look to create a strong single-game parlay, we are always hoping to generate a long price using correlated events, so in the event a game falls into a particular script, our play has a decent shot of hitting.
Chicago enters tonight’s matchup in the midst of an awful run of play, dropping five straight contests, as well as 10 of its last 13. The skid has likely ended any hopes of a late push at the AL Central crown.
Even still, the White Sox go as -200 favorites entering tonight’s matchup with the Royals, due in large to the fact that Kris Bubic has been simply terrible this season.
I hate to use the term “due” but in this matchup, but the White Sox might be exactly that as Chicago has hit to elite numbers versus left-handed pitching this season, and now get one of the league’s very worst lefty starters.
It’s highly possible the White Sox snap their five-game skid with a heavy offensive performance Wednesday, and I think this long-shot arrangement has a chance of hitting should the White Sox break out with a big day at the plate.
The Parlay (odds): +1053 (FanDuel)
- A.J. Pollock To Record A Run -130
- Andrew Vaughn Over 1.5 Total Bases -105
- Jose Abreu To Record an RBI +125
- Chicago White Sox -1.5 +100
Same-Game Parlay – Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox
A.J. Pollock To Record A Run
Kris Bubic’s 5.84 xERA and .368 xwOBA go as two of the very worst marks in the league this season, particularly among pitchers with a sample size as large as 99 innings.
Bubic’s quality of pitch rating is poor at 4.10, and batters have consistently squared him up, leading to one of the highest hard-hit rates in the league.
Since the start of last season, Bubic has allowed an OPS of 1.075 to the top of the order (1-2-3), where Chicago should have a trio of bats that have done a ton of damage against lefties this season.
So to begin with, any batter is loving his chances entering a matchup with Bubic this season, let alone a guy with the splits of A.J. Pollock, who has hit to elite numbers versus lefties this season with a .596 slug-rate and a .915 OPS.
He has struggled throughout August, similar to the rest of his squad, but he has broken out over the last six games batting a respectable .304 average.
Behind Bubic lies a Kansas City bullpen that has posted the league’s second-worst ERA (5.76) throughout the month of August, and a seventh-worst xFIP of 4.48 during that span.
There’s a strong chance Pollock is able to reach base several times in this game (Over 1.5 Total bases could be another very respectable way to play his leg), and when Pollock does reach base, Vaughn and Abreu should give him a strong chance to get home.
Andrew Vaughn Over 1.5 Total Bases
Vaughn will look to cap off what has been a very strong month of August in which the 24-year-old sophomore has batted .287 with 10 extra-base hits and four homers.
Vaughn holds an elite hard-hit rate of 49.4% on the season, and he’s batted .341 versus left-handed pitching with an OPS of .820.
Vaughn features excellent marks versus each of the changeup and curveball, with RV/100 ABs of 3.4 and 3.9, respectively, which is a great note versus a pitcher who throws that combo half of the time.
Vaughn has fared steadily historically versus Bubic as well, sitting at 3/8 with one home-run entering tonight’s contest.
Vaughn should likely get a fifth at-bat in today’s contest, and I believe in this matchup he has a good chance of managing a combination of an extra-base hit or two hits altogether.
Jose Abreu To Record an RBI +130
With both of Vaughn and Pollock offering a strong chance of getting into scoring position in this matchup, it could be a great spot for one of the league’s most consistent RBI guys in Abreu to play to that strength again Wednesday.
Particularly because Abreu features very strong marks again this season against left-handed pitching, with a .506 slug-rate and .904 OPS. And ideally for our single-game parlay, lots of combinations of hits or contact from Abreu will cash this leg, and possibly the Pollock leg as well.
Chicago White Sox -1.5
Many may choose to leave this leg alone considering what Chicago’s recent results have looked like, and due to the fact that Lance Lynn has not been altogether dominant this season.
However, for the rest of this SGP to go right, we will likely need a significant total of runs from the White Sox, and I believe Lynn has shown enough for me to feel that adding this leg to move the price from +748 without to +1053 is worthwhile.
Lynn has bounced back from a horrific start to the season with a strong month of August, in which he seemed to find the dominant form we saw last season allowing a WHIP of just 0.91 with an ERA of 2.73.
His xwOBA has plummeted over the last 100 ABs, and a reasonable start in this spot combined with the rest of our SGP remaining intact should mean a comfortable Sox win.
Determining which props to play for Pollock, Vaughn, and Abreu was a close decision and surely arguments could be made for rearrangements should you desire, as well as leaving out the -1.5 leg and covering yourself should the Royals offense go off again tonight. But I believe seeking a large output from the Sox in this spot is a fun and logical way to go for a big pay-off.
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