Friday Sharp Report: Pros Betting Mariners-Astros, Two Other Games
Gerrit Cole. Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
- Historically, Friday is the best day of the week to bet against the public
- Wiseguys are getting down on a trio of sharp, contrarian totals tonight.
Happy Friday! Historically, today has been the best day of the week to fade the public. With recreational bettors wrapping up their work week (and getting their latest paychecks), Average Joes are more likely to get down on games, specifically targeting favorites, home teams and overs. This leads to increased ticket counts and elevated contrarian value on dogs, road teams and unders.
After analyzing Friday’s 15-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed three MLB bets that professionals are focusing on, starting at 7:05 p.m., 7:10 p.m. and 8:10 p.m. ET.
>> All data as of 1:45 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay the sportsbook in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettors would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Texas Rangers at New York Yankees
- Sharp angle: Under 9
- First pitch 7:05 p.m. ET
The Yankees beat the Rangers, 7-3, last night, with the Over 9.5 cashing by the skin of its teeth. With Mike Minor (4.53 ERA) facing the stacked Bombers lineup in short-porch Yankee stadium, nearly 70% of bets are taking the Over. However, 80% of dollars are going Under, indicating a massive smart money discrepancy.
Despite the majority of bets going Over, the total has remained frozen at 9, with the juice moving from 9 Under -105 to 9 Under -121. This signals Under liability with the next move likely down to 8.5. Wiseguys at 5Dimes and Heritage both hammered the Under 9, triggering a pair of steam and reverse line moves. An added bonus: Kerwin Danley is behind the plate, a profitable Under ump (+14.67 units) since 2005.
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New York Mets at Miami Marlins
- Sharp angle: Under 7.5
- First pitch 7:10 p.m. ET
Public bettors see a low total with two mediocre pitchers on the mound (Zack Wheeler 3.89 ERA and Jose Urena 4.66 ERA) and that’s all they need to know. Easy Over. But sharps are zigging while the public zags. The Over is getting 74% of bets but only 24% of dollars, indicating almost exclusively Average Joe five dollar bets on the Over, with big wiseguy wagers on the Under. The total opened at 7.5 with -105 both ways but has since moved to 7.5 Under -113, indicating smart money on the Under. Sharps at Pinnacle hit the Under 7.5 and the roof is open with wind blowing in at 7-9 mph.
Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros
- Sharp angle: Under 7.5
- First pitch 8:10 p.m. ET
It’s not often you get a contrarian Under opportunity with Gerrit Cole (2.64 ERA) on the mound. But the public sees a low total and Mike Leake (4.16 ERA) on the other side and is betting the Over. Currently 71% of bets are on the Over but 76% of dollars are on the Under. Despite the heavy Over betting, the total juice has moved from 7.5 even both sides to 7.5 Under -119. Pros at CRIS, Pinnacle and Heritage all got down hard on the Under 7.5. The CRIS and Pinnacle moves are especially notable considering the fact that they’re two of the sharpest offshore books with the highest limits. The roof is also closed in Houston, another benefit for Under backers.
All bets risking one unit, not to win one unit. All plays Listed Pitcher, not Action.
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