MLB Sharp Betting Pick: Yankees vs. Rays Game 3 (Wednesday, Oct. 7)

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Alex Trautwig/MLB Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Masahiro Tanaka

In a similar fashion to today’s Marlins-Braves matchup, Game 3 between the Yankees and Rays is seeming to be met with some overreaction to last night’s result.

Both games saw a double-digit run output Tuesday, only to be followed by a half-run change in today’s over/under. And as such, both games have drawn a heavy majority to the over.

For Yankees-Rays, that’s been a 79% backing of the over as of 1 p.m. ET. But according to our PRO Report, sharps aren’t among that majority.

Let’s take a look.


Data as of 12:50 p.m. ET. For immediate access to our MLB PRO Report, start a Free Trial today! You’ll also get:

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Yankees vs. Rays Game 3 PRO Report

It’s not just the sharps backing the under, either. Our top MLB experts have also taken a liking to the low-scoring game tonight, and a PRO betting system suggests that history is on that side as well.

[Try PRO for FREE to track all the sharp action hitting Wednesday’s playoff slate.]

Sharp Action

While only 21% of bettors are taking the under, some books have dropped the number to 8.5, while others have simply juiced up the under to -120. But in either case, the line move away from a very popular side should tell you something about what sort of bettors are among that minority.

Sports Insights Bet Signals have confirmed two cases of sharp action hitting this under, which has been the driving force in the line shift.

Sharp Action edge: Under

Big Money

While there’s still plenty of time for these figures to regress a bit, it’s certainly worth noting that as of the afternoon, the 21% majority on the under has accounted for 83% of actual money hitting that side.

And since big bets are more likely to come from sharps, that’s another strong hint that the pros are going against the public.

Big Money edge: Under

PRO Systems

When two winning teams meet and the public likes the over, history says you’ve got a recipe for an under.

As a result of that, our PRO System, Contrarian Unders for Winning Teams (with a 55% win rate over more than 2,600 games), is showing this game as a match.

PRO Systems edge: Under

Top Experts

In addition to the sharps, two of our top MLB experts are backing this under.

You can follow all our experts’ picks in the Action App.

Top Experts edge: Under


Check out our new MLB PRO Report, where we highlight key factors that provide betting edges — like large wagers, historically profitable betting systems, model projections and expert picks — that when combined with sharp money can powerfully detail the smartest bets on a given slate.

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