MLB Sharp Betting Pick: Marlins vs. Braves Game 2 (Wednesday, Oct. 7)
A recent result can often skew public perception a bit more than it should. And it appears that this afternoon’s Marlins-Braves Game 2 is providing a perfect example of that.
With the “recent result” being a 9-5 final in a game that featured one of 2020’s best arms in Max Fried, bettors have been all over the over on a Game 2 total that opened at just 8.5. In fact, as of 10:15 a.m. ET, 83% of bets that have landed on this total have hit the over.
As for the sharps, though, they’re not so convinced by the one-game sample.
Data as of 10:15 a.m. ET. For immediate access to our MLB PRO Report, start a Free Trial today! You’ll also get:
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Marlins vs. Braves Game 2 PRO Report
Thanks in large part to an initial line change as a result of the over’s backing, the under has drawn the bigger bets from sharps, and is a match for one of our PRO Systems.
As mentioned, the earliest sportsbooks to market had this total pegged at 8.5, and have been getting slammed with bets on the over. As a result, this number shifted up to 9 (which is where several later books opened).
That’s when sharps stepped in and confirmed the original line to be correct.
Three Sports Insights Bet Signals, which track and record instances of market movement caused by sharp action, have been triggered on the under — all of which came during the total’s brief stint at 9.
That sent the market back to its opener even though it makes for an easier bet for most customers, indicating just how respected those sharp bettors are.
Sharp Action edge: Under
In addition to the SI Bet Signals and reverse line movement on this total, the discrepancy between bets and money has served as another sign of professional under action.
While driving just 17% of actual tickets, the under has dominated the money distribution, generating 81% of the loot as of the late morning.
And since sharps are more likely to be the ones making bigger bets, a discrepancy as large as that can certainly be used to help point out the the pro side.
Big Money edge: Under
Even without the confirmed sharp action, the huge public backing of this over puts the under in a profitable position almost on its own.
Perhaps for the same reason (the line being inflated due to a public overreaction), unders are 1400-1142-118 (55.1%) since 2005 when receiving no more than 35% of bets in games between two winning teams.
PRO Systems edge: Under
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