MLB Trade Deadline: Value Rankings for Players Potentially on the Move, Including Joey Gallo, Trevor Story & Craig Kimbrel
Matthew Stockman/Getty Images. Pictured: Trevor Story
The concept of trade value can be difficult to quantify because every team has different needs. The value that one player can provide to a new team is directly tied to whatever playing time is reallocated their way.
For example, if Joey Gallo were traded to the Chicago White Sox — who have ranked about average in terms of expected offense and could use a defensive upgrade in the corner outfield — I would upgrade their “True Talent” projection by more than three wins.
However, if the White Sox acquired a starting pitcher like Germán Márquez — who ranks similarly to Gallo by rest of season WAR projections — it wouldn’t move the needle much since they are mostly loaded with pitching (third in MLB in xwOBA against). Márquez wouldn’t necessarily fill an area of need.
While the White Sox are highly unlikely to acquire a starting pitcher, trade value is still very context-dependent and taken on a team-by-team basis.
As a result, we’ll continue to evaluate trades on a case-by-case basis through Friday’s trading deadline, as we have done with early deals involving Nelson Cruz and Adam Frazier.
Still, I wanted to provide a market-consensus rest-of-season WAR projection for players currently on the trade block so that you can paint a rough picture of their expected contributions.
Rest of Season WAR Projections
The rest of season WAR projections don’t necessarily reflect how much each player will contribute to their new team; those factors are playing time and player replacement dependent. However, it should give you a decent feel for how these trade candidates compare relative to one another.
Using rest of season projections for Depth Charts,Steamer, and ZIPS, I compiled the below list of average WAR projections for the following position players and pitchers:
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