MLB Odds & Picks for Nationals vs. Orioles: Why to Bet a Ryan Mountcastle Over

MLB Odds & Picks for Nationals vs. Orioles: Why to Bet a Ryan Mountcastle Over article feature image

G Fiume/Getty Images. Pictured: Ryan Mountcastle #6 of the Baltimore Orioles.

  • The Nationals and Orioles will wrap up their short two-game series in Baltimore Wednesday night.
  • The O's enter the matchup as home favorites (-155 odds) despite their struggles this season.
  • Nick Martin explains why he's betting a player prop in tonight's game.

Nationals vs. Orioles Odds

Nationals Odds+130
Orioles Odds-155
Over/Under9 (-105 / -115)
Time7:05 p.m. ET
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Erick Fedde and the Washington Nationals bullpen combined for a 3-0 shutout in the series opener Tuesday Night.

A similar result Wednesday could be quite surprising however as the Nationals will send Patrick Corbin to the mound who owns the highest ERA amongst qualified starters of 6.59. The Baltimore Orioles will counter with Tyler Wells, who has pitched to an ERA of 3.62 throughout 59.2 innings this season.

Will Baltimore breakthrough with a big offensive performance in this soft matchup?

Can the Nationals Overcome Poor Pitching?

Patrick Corbin was among the worst starters in baseball in 2021 with an xERA of 5.62, and the aging veteran has followed that up with a shocking expected mark of 6.34 throughout 69.2 innings in 2022.

His ERA on the road is way up at 7.47, which is the highest mark in the league amongst qualified starters. Right-handed batters are hitting .306 against Corbin since the start of the 2020 season, which is the highest amongst MLB starters with over 140 innings pitched over that time.

That's an especially concerning mark looking towards the Orioles right-heavy lineup, as Cedric Mullins is essentially the only relevant left-handed bat.

All of Corbin's underlying numbers suggest he is simply a far below league average pitcher at this point, and opponents xwoba has actually risen over the last 250 PA's so a turnaround in form may be more unlikely now than ever.

Behind Corbin the Nationals boast a dreadful bullpen, which has struggled to an ERA of 4.73 in the month of June and been a large part of the Nats 7-13 record throughout the month.

The Nationals have been more productive than you might expect considering that record, with a 99 wRC+ and .314 woba, and will likely need a reasonable output to have a chance in this contest.

Orioles Offense Showing Signs of Life

While Baltimore is far from an offensive powerhouse, the order has hit to better splits against left-handed pitching this season with a 93 wRC+ and .298 woba. The Orioles have also been more productive of late, batting to a 102 wRC+ and .302 woba throughout the month of June.

Ryan Mountcastle has been a big part of that productivity, as he has hit .320 over his last 78 PA's. Mountcastle has hit left-handed pitching effectively this season, with a .288 average so far, and that's not surprising as his 27 barreled balls versus left-handed pitching since the start of 2021 ties for 12th in the league.

Tyler Wells, with his giant 6-foot-8 frame, offers a lot of upside at age 27, and has more consistently put it all together this season on route to an xERA of 3.66. Wells clearly has some great stuff as evidenced by a stellar QOPA of 5.17, and is certainly someone to watch moving forward for Orioles fans.

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Nationals-Orioles Pick

It seems likely the Orioles should put together a strong output at the plate today against Corbin and the Nationals lowly bullpen, which should allow several opportunities for Mountcastle to do some damage at the plate.

As alluded to above Mountcastle has managed some big numbers altogether of late, and over the last 14 days Mountcastle has slugged .800 versus lefties in specific.

At +100 for Mountcastle to get over 1.5 bases in this matchup I see value, especially as the Orioles should be able to turn the lineup over a higher than average amount, and I would play this prop down to -110.

Pick: Ryan Mountcastle Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105)

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