Orioles vs. Blue Jays MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Bet This Plus-Money Prop and Over/Under (Wednesday, August 17)
Cole Burston/Getty Images. Pictured: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. #27 of the Toronto Blue Jays.
Orioles vs. Blue Jays Odds
|Blue Jays Odds
|3:07 p.m. ET
|Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.
With back-to-back wins to open this series for the Baltimore Orioles, Wednesday's finale comes with an added layer on intrigue.
Austin Voth will get the ball for the Orioles, hoping to improve upon his 5.34 ERA throughout 60 1/3 innings, while Ross Stripling will return from the IL for the Jays.
Toronto is once again priced as a relatively heavy favorite for the contest at -165, but could that be a risky play with Stripling leading into a soft bullpen? Let's dive into the matchup.
You can sense the growing optimism and belief surrounding the Orioles' talented young roster as this season has moved along, and it has showed with the results all across the ballpark of late.
A notable part of the turnaround seems to be the presence of rookie Adley Rutschman both in the clubhouse and behind home-plate, as well as posting dominant numbers offensively.
Rutschman has now slugged .526 versus right-handed pitchers, with a .916 OPS throughout 205 at-bats, and could be a player to watch entering a matchup with Ross Stripling.
Baltimore may need a reasonable offensive output to hang around in this contest, even if the Blue Jays seem to be fighting through somewhat of a down period at the plate themselves, as Voth has been far from good.
Voth has pitched to an ERA of 6.08 against AL East opponents since the start of last season, and an ERA of 5.26 altogether since the start of last year. He has trended into considerably better form of late however, with an ERA of 2.46 over his last five starts, and a WHIP of just 1.09.
Voth's stuff is rating roughly the same looking towards a QOPA of 4.35 during that span however, and I am reluctant to believe the turnaround will remain this significant moving forward.
Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto's offense has been far from top form since its weekend series against the Guardians and opening two games from this series, but looking towards a larger sample size it seems Wednesday could offer a good spot for a better day against Voth.
The Blue Jays have been the fifth-most productive team in the league this season against right-handed pitching with it's 114 wRC+ rating, and feature a number of batters who should make for tough outs Wednesday.
Vladimir Guerrero had his 19-game hitting streak snapped Sunday, but has bounced back with homers in back-to-back games to start this series.
Guerrero has slugged .532 on breaking pitches this season, which is the ninth-best mark league-wide, and will draw a matchup against Voth, who has thrown breaking stuff a notably high clip at 55%.
Guerrero has put 129 balls in-play at an exit-velocity of over 100 MPH against right-handed pitching since the start of last season, which is tops in the AL.
Stripling will make his first start since July 30, and will be unlikely to pitch greater than five innings, especially considering that was usually where the veteran topped out prior to injury. He has managed a solid xERA of 3.74 throughout 82 and a third innings this season, led by one of the league's better changeups.
Toronto's bullpen has appeared to be in better form of late with an ERA of 2.98 over the last 14 days, but an xFIP of 4.48 certainly suggests regression is coming, and the unit is not as vastly improved as it may seem.
Toronto's offense could be due for some better results in this game given the talent on hand and a matchup starting against Voth, but I certainly do not see any value backing the Jays at this price considering it's modest pitching situation for the game.
Stripling has been far from elite this season, and there are certainly some question marks with him returning from the IL in this spot, before leading into a middling bullpen.
Guerrero should be well situated to continue a dominant run of play however, and I see value backing him to get over 1.5 bases at +105, as well as the over 9 in what will hopefully be an exciting contest.
Pick: Vladimir Guerrero Over 1.5 Bases +105 (Play to -105), Over 9 +105 (Play to +100)