Orioles vs. Yankees Odds & Picks: Don’t Expect Many Runs Early (Tuesday, April 26)

Orioles vs. Yankees Odds

These two divisional rivals have seen a lot of each other in the early going as the teams gear up for their second series in two weeks.

The men on the mound will also be familiar as Jordan Lyles makes his second start against the Bronx Bombers. Opposing Lyles will be Luis Severino, who has gotten off to a sensational start after an injury-riddled 2021.

However, the Bombers have not exactly played up to that nickname this season. Instead, the Yankees pitching staff has carried the team thus far.

The same may be said for the Orioles. They are one of the lightest hitting teams in baseball, but Baltimore boasts a sparkling 3.17 team ERA entering Tuesday's divisional matchup.

So, will pitching continue to prevail? Or are the bats destined to breakout?

Has Jordan Lyles Found It?

Coincidentally, I previewed Lyles' first start against the Yankees, and I remember highlighting how concerning his first start was. Not only did Lyles concede an alarming number of runs, but furthermore he allowed tons of hard contact as well.

However, that analysis seems like a thing of the past, because Jordan Lyles' last two starts have been a stark contrast.

Lyles kept the Yankees' bats quiet as he spun five and one-third innings of one-run ball while striking out four batters. Then, he followed up that performance with five shutout innings on the road against Oakland, racking up six strikeouts and only walking one batter.

The difference between these two starts compared to his first one is that Lyles has begun to utilize his entire arsenal.

In 2021, he was a fastball-heavy pitcher, leaning on his heater on nearly 40% of his pitches. However, this season he has reduced his fastball usage to 26%. In addition, his pitch distribution has drastically changed: Lyles is throwing his sinker and curveball much more frequently than he did last season.

In fact, Lyles' sinker has become his primary weapon against right-handed hitters. He's only thrown nine fastballs to righties thus far. Instead, Lyles attacks righties with his sinker and slider combination. Then, he will keep lefties off-balance by utilizing his fastball, frequently followed-up by his changeup.

Yes, his tendencies may be easy to spot, but in the end, it comes down to execution. Given the Yankees lineup's penchant to swing-and-miss, Lyles' success should continue on Tuesday evening.

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Severino to Overpower Struggling O's

While you have Lyles throwing everything but the kitchen sink at hitters, Luis Severino will attack the Baltimore lineup much differently. Sevy's stuff looks as good as ever — his velocity is up for nearly every pitch in his arsenal — and the results show it.

Severino ranks in the top 6% of MLB in average exit velocity and is in the top half of the league in each expected category. Although, it's not just his velocity that has increased: everything has more life to it.

Each pitch is drastically different than it was in 2019 and 2021, as he was not fully healthy in either of those seasons; however, going back to 2018, there are still noticeable differences.

For example, Severino's slider, which is his second-most utilized pitch, has three more inches of drop on it than in 2018. Additionally, his cutter, which he added after he came back in 2021, is better than ever.

Severino has already had great results against two of the most formidable lineups in the AL East, so there is reason to believe that he will dominate the weakest one here.

Orioles-Yankees Pick

Both starting pitchers are on top of their game, while each of these lineups has undoubtedly not been. Lyles and Severino have displayed strides that only point toward success in this matchup.

On top of that, the temperature is going to cool down considerably, and there is potential for light showers in the Bronx, which will only help cool off the bats even further.

Bank on both starters to settle down early and force runs come at a premium.

Pick: F5 Under 4.5