Orioles vs. Yankees Odds, Picks, Predictions: Tyler Wells Can Keep Baltimore Competitive With New York (Wednesday, May 25)
G Fiume/Getty Images. Pictured: Tyler Wells.
Orioles vs. Yankees Odds
|Time||7:05 p.m. ET|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
After a walk-off win on Tuesday, the Yankees go for another series win over the Orioles tonight.
Lefty JP Sears will make his first major league start for New York after an excellent start to his 2022 in Triple-A. Baltimore will counter with Tyler Wells, who has continued to show promise in 2022 after a solid rookie campaign last year.
Orioles Turn To Reliable Wells
Adley Rutschman has hit just .188 through his first 18 plate appearances with a .278 OBP and 33.3% hard-hit rate, but he has looked competent at the plate and it’s obvious that having him up with the club is beneficial for the O’s.
This season, Baltimore has a 23rd-ranked .413 xSLG and .317 xwOBA. Those aren’t impressive numbers, but they may be more competent than some might have expected entering the campaign.
The Orioles have struggled against left-handed pitching, which is a concern for this game. Baltimore has hit to a 78 wRC+ rating with a .271 wOBA this season against southpaws.
On the mound, the 27-year-old Wells has continued to show lots of upside in the early going of this campaign. He has pitched to a 3.44 xERA, and has continued to find more success since adding a changeup last season. Wells features excellent spin rates and has a tremendous 5.26 QOPA, including excellent marks on both his changeup and sinker.
Sears Set for First MLB Start
Tuesday night’s win came at a cost for the Yankees. Giancarlo Stanton left with a calf injury and is likely to miss a little time. Stanton joins DJ LeMahieu, Josh Donaldson and Joey Gallo on the injured list, which means this powerhouse Yankees lineup is limping into this affair without some key names.
Sears has clearly earned the right to his first big-league start with his excellent numbers in Triple-A this season. He has a 0.83 ERA and 1.11 FIP through 21 2/3 innings this season, and the 26-year-old threw a couple of scoreless innings when rosters were expanded in April. Sears has allowed just two walks compared to 30 strikeouts this year in the minors.
There’s a lot of anticipation to see whether Sears’ stuff can play in the majors moving forward.
Wells offers a ton of promise moving forward this season, and I do not see any value on the Yankees as a big underdog with a pitcher making his first career start backed by a depleted lineup.
Wells is certainly not a pitcher I will be looking to fade too often moving forward at similar lines given his strong results.
Getting almost even money on the Orioles to hang around with a pitcher of Wells’ quality on the mound through five innings looks to be a sound proposition considering the Yankees expected lineup.
I see value backing the Orioles at +0.5 in the first five innings, and would play that down to -120.
Pick: Orioles +0.5 First 5 Innings (-110, play to -115)