Orioles vs Yankees Picks Today | MLB Betting Preview For Saturday, October 1

Orioles vs Yankees Picks Today | MLB Betting Preview For Saturday, October 1 article feature image

Sarah Stier/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Judge

Orioles vs. Yankees Odds

Orioles Odds+180
Yankees Odds-225
Time12:05 p.m. ET
TVMLB Network
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

With six games left in the regular season, the New York Yankees have already clinched the AL East and are locked into the second seed. However, the team will look to continue its hot streak as it enters October.

After playing sub-.500 baseball for two months, the Yankes went 17-8 in September. New York averaged 5.36 runs per game while posting a 3.45 team ERA. On Saturday afternoon, the Yankees will host the Baltimore Orioles for game two of their three-game series.

After being one of the most exciting teams to watch this season, the Baltimore Orioles' playoff bid will fall just short. The Orioles held one of the three AL wild-card spots for a brief time, but went 13-15 in September. However, with a win the Orioles can secure its first .500 season since last making the playoffs in 2016.

The Orioles took the opener of this series 2-1 last night. The Yankees have won  11 of the 17 meetings against the Orioles this season. Can the Yankees even the series and  continue its success against the Orioles on Saturday afternoon?

Voth, Orioles Have Been a Surprise

The Orioles' playoff chances faded as the team's pitching came undone in September. The Orioles had a 4.59 team ERA in September. Before arriving in New York, the Orioles allowed 46 runs in their previous six games against the Astros and Red Sox. However, Jordan Lyles shut down the Yankees on Friday night, striking out nine and allowing  just four hits and one run in seven innings.

Austin Voth will get the baton and take his shot at shutting down the Yankees as well. Voth has split time with the Nationals and Orioles this season. After struggling out of the bullpen for the Nationals, Voth has been much more effective as a starter for the Orioles. Voth is 4-3 with a 2.78 ERA and 64 strikeouts in 71 1/3 innings in 16 starts. Voth has not faced the Yankees this season, but he could have a long day.

Voth is slightly above average in average exit velocity and hard hit percentage. He does not generate many swings and misses, ranking in the 16th percentile in chase rate and 36th percentile in strikeout percentage. Voth can also be prone to giving up the long ball, which can be problematic against the Yankees, especially at Yankee Stadium.

However, the Orioles can hit them out of the park as well. Anthony Santander leads the team with 33 home runs and he has been scorching hot of late. He hit 10 home runs in September, including three two home run games in his last six. He also has been a Yankees killer this season with six home runs and 13 runs batted in 15 games, though he is just 1-for-9 against Nestor Cortes.

All Eyes on Judge

The main storyline surrounding the Yankees at the moment is Aaron Judge's chase for the AL record home run record. After a week-long home run drought that included nine walks, the AL MVP favorite launched home run No. 61 in Toronto on Wednesday.

Back home Friday night, Judge did not homer but he went 1-for-2 with two more walks. Judge has never faced Orioles starter Austin Voth, but Voth has surrendered 12 home runs in 96 2/3 innings.

After their mid-summer offensive swoon, the Yankees' bats came alive in September. The team hit 39 home runs and posted a .760 OPS. Gleyber Torres is hitting .390 with five home runs, 20 runs batted in and a 1.177 OPS over his last 15 games. Rookie Oswaldo Cabrera is hitting .321 with four home runs, 10 runs batted in, and a 1.061 OPS.

The Yankees also got a major boost last night with the return of DJ LeMahieu, but he did go 0-for-3 last night. Josh Donaldson could be a bat to watch as well as he is 3-for-6 with two home runs in his career against Voth.

The Yankees will send Cortes to the mound and that has usually been a very good thing for the team this season. The first-time All-Star is 11-4 with a 2.56 ERA and has a 3.9 WAR this season. He has been even better at home, going 5-1 with a 2.13 ERA. Cortes has yet to allow an earned run against the Orioles this season and he has 19 strikeouts in 11 innings.

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Orioles-Yankees Pick

The Yankees have little to play for in terms of playoff positioning, but still needs to stay sharp and evaluate their best playoff lineup. That includes the effectiveness of LeMahieu, who often sparks the Yankees big bats when he is right. One of those big bats is Judge and I predict that he will break the AL home run record today.

A big offensive performance led by Judge could be all Cortes needs. Cortes is the better starter in this game, has been dominant at home and against the Orioles. I like the Yankees in this one and there is value on the run line at plus money. The Yankees have beaten the Orioles by two runs or more seven times this season.

Pick: Yankees -1.5 (+100)

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