MLB Odds & Picks for Padres vs. Diamondbacks: Strikeout Prop Has Value in NL West Duel
Kelsey Grant/Getty Images. Pictured: Zac Gallen
- The Diamondbacks and Padres meet tonight in what is close to a toss-up according to the oddsmakers.
- Arizona will send Zac Gallen to the mound, while San Diego will oppose him with Sean Manaea.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a betting pick.
Padres vs. Diamondbacks Odds
|Time||9:40 p.m. ET|
|Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The Arizona Diamondbacks host the San Diego Padres Tuesday for the opener of a three-game set, looking to extract some revenge after last week’s sweep at Petco.
Zac Gallen was brilliant in game two of last week’s series with 11 strikeouts over 6 innings, and will duel again with Sean Manaea, who also threw 6 strong in the Padres’ eventual 3-2 win in extras.
Will we see another pitchers’ duel Tuesday at Chase Field?
Padres Due For Regression?
The Padres head into this contest having produced the eighth-most runs in the league, but it seems likely the Padres will trend downwards moving forward.
San Diego holds the league’s 14th-highest BABIP and the sixth-highest average with RISP, yet owns the league’s fourth-worst xBA of just .247 and an eighth-lowest xWOBA of .317.
The Padres have hit to negative pitch values against each of the fastball, curveball and changeup, which makes up the vast majority of Gallen’s arsenal.
Manaea has fared very well against Arizona throughout two starts this season, with an ERA of just 1.38 with a WHIP of just 0.61.
Manaea has been very steady altogether for the Padres, with a 3.44 xERA and 10 quality starts in 13 outings this season, and has pitched to favorable splits on the road as well with a WHIP of just 1.08.
Manaea has seen his WHIP rise to 1.26 in June and his below-average QOPA of 3.95 could be an indicator that as adjustments are made his stuff may not play as effectively moving forward. It will be interesting to see if the D’backs fare better seeing him for the second time in a week.
Diamondbacks Have Ace in Gallen
It’s not overly surprising to see that Manaea has dominated this soft D’backs order in both outings this season, as they sit with a fourth-worst wRC+ of 85 against left-handed pitching with a wOBA of .292.
It’s also not surprising to see that Gallen has continued to take steps forward this season at age 26 considering the wealth of tools at his disposal, and has managed an xERA of 3.32 in 71 innings.
Gallen has thrown four pitches to well above average ratings, including a fastball which features a sixth-highest spin rate of 2443.9 among pitchers who have thrown more than 30 innings.
Gallen has also been a little sharper pitching at home this season, with a WHIP of 0.83 and ERA of 2.57.
Gallen offers a significant pitching edge over Manaea and seems to match up quite well with San Diego’s shorthanded lineup, which will likely be overvalued in the betting markets moving forward based upon it’s greater-than-expected output of runs.
My lean with regards to a side would certainly be the D’backs, but I see more value backing Gallen to manage over 5.5 strikeouts again tonight.
Gallen should get a lengthy leash to stay in the game, and with 5-plus strikeout targets likely to be in the Padres lineup today I believe we have the 59% probability needed to back Gallen to hit 6 or more again.
Pick: Zac Gallen Over 5.5 Strikeouts -120 (Play 5.5 to -130)