Padres vs Phillies Odds, Picks, Prediction for NLCS Game 5
Michael Reaves/Getty Images. Pictured: The Phillies dugout celebrates.
Padres vs. Phillies Game 5 Odds
|Time||2:37 p.m. ET|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
Up three games to one in the NLCS, the Philadelphia Phillies have the chance to punch their ticket to the World Series with a win on Sunday over the San Diego Padres. After rattling off back-to-back wins, Philadelphia has the opportunity to advance on their home diamond.
Will the Phillies take care of business, or can the Padres force a Game 6 in San Diego?
Padres Need Elite Darvish
Projected to take the mound for the Padres in this contest is right-hander Yu Darvish. Through 30 starts during the regular season, Darvish went 16-8 with a 3.10 ERA and 0.95 WHIP.
This strong pitching has continued into the postseason as he is 2-1 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.00 through three starts. Based on his metrics, regression should not be an issue for Darvish as he boasts a .291 xwOBA, .227 xBA, and .388 xSLG.
In Game 1 of this series, Darvish allowed just two runs on three hits through seven innings while striking out seven. Over seven career starts against Philadelphia, the right-hander is 2-1 with a 2.23 ERA and 0.98 WHIP.
However, Darvish may not get much run support in this contest as San Diego is slated to go against left-hander Zack Wheeler. Across 151 career plate appearances against Wheeler, this current Padres roster possesses a mere .197 BA, .307 SLG, and .258 wOBA.
We should not expect much positive regression based on the underlying numbers as they produced a .218 xBA, .369 xSLG, and .291 xwOBA over those 151 plate appearances.
Wheeler Continues to Dominate
Wheeler is the projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia in this potential close-out game. Through 26 starts during the regular season, Wheeler went 12-7 with a 2.82 ERA and 1.04 WHIP.
This strong pitching has continued into the playoffs as he is 1-1 with a 1.40 ERA and 0.52 WHIP through three starts. There have been one or fewer runs scored in the first five innings in each of those three starts.
Based on his metrics, regression should not be an issue for Wheeler as he boasts a .275 xwOBA, .226 xBA, and .343 xSLG. In Game 1 of this series, Wheeler was nearly perfect as he allowed zero runs on just one hit through seven innings pitched while striking out eight.
Over seven career starts against San Diego, the left-hander is 3-1 with a 2.06 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. However, Wheeler may not get much run support in this contest as Philadelphia is slated to go against Darvish.
Across 144 career plate appearances against Darvish, this current Phillies roster possesses a mere .191 BA, .360 SLG, and .252 wOBA.
We are getting some good value for the F5 under because of how stacked each of these two lineups are. There is no denying the power and hitting ability of each team, but they are both going against two pitchers who are extremely dialed in.
With so much on the line in this game, we should expect the best from two pitchers who have given just that through this postseason. Darvish and Wheeler squared off in Game 1 of this series and there was only one run scored in the first five innings.
While Game 4 was extremely high-scoring, Darvish and Wheeler are capable of bringing these offenses back down to earth. The weather should also give us a boost in this game as the forecast calls for possible light rain and 8-10 mph winds blowing in directly from center field.
Pick: Padres/Phillies F5 Under 3.5