MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions for Padres vs. Phillies: Bettors Can’t Trust Blake Snell (Wednesday, May 18)
Norm Hall/Getty Images. Pictured: Blake Snell.
- The Phillies are favored against the surging Padres offense tonight.
- Blake Snell will make his 2022 debut for San Diego opposite the reliable Zach Wheeler.
- Nicholas Martin breaks down the matchup and makes his betting pick below.
Padres vs. Phillies Odds
|Over/Under||7.5 (-105 / -115)|
|Time||6:45 p.m. ET|
|Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The Phillies will look to bounce back from a series-opening defeat on Tuesday night against the Padres with Zach Wheeler starting on Wednesday against San Diego.
Philadelphia returned home after a 5-2 West Coast road trip, only to lose the series opener despite a quality start from Zach Eflin. Now, they get a chance to even the series against San Diego southpaw Blake Snell.
Can we expect the Phillies to cruise Wednesday as they look to get back in the National League East race?
Debuting Snell Can’t Be Trusted
There is a ton of cause for optimism for the Padres 36 games into the season, and they enter this contest just a half-game back of the first-place Dodgers in the NL West.
Seeing Snell return to his once spectacular form would be a massive boost to San Diego’s postseason hopes, but I remain unconvinced that is something we are likely to see in 2022.
The left-hander will make his 2022 debut Wednesday, having been scratched from his opening weekend start due to an adductor strain. He made three rehab appearances with Triple-A El Paso but figures to have workload limitations for this game Wednesday. In Snell’s final rehab start on Monday, he allowed one earned run on three hits over five innings.
Snell’s play has trended downwards the last two seasons, including a 4.86 xERA in 2021, and a lowly 4.06 QOPA. He gave little indication that a notable turnaround was coming this spring and was hit hard over 5 1/3 Cactus League innings to the tune of an 8.41 ERA.
Obviously, we don’t want to put too much stock into a tiny sample of spring innings, but with the results of the last two seasons looking how they have, it’s hard to find a reason why Snell will return to his former dominance anytime soon.
It’s been reported that the plan after what will hopefully be 4-5 innings from Snell is to look to Nick Martinez. Many were not entirely sure to expect from Martinez entering this 2022 campaign in his return to the big leagues, but what we have seen has altogether not been very good. He has a 5.40 xERA over 30 2/3 innings and has walked 11.5% of batters faced and been barreled up 14.3% of the time.
San Diego faces a tough matchup in Wheeler. The Friars have hit to a 20th-ranked 93 wRC+ and a .293 wOBA that’s 23rd in MLB against right-handed pitching this season.
The Padres xSLG rate is way down at .400, with an xWOBA of .320, and it certainly appears this Padres lineup is due for some regression at the plate.
Philly Offense Match Up Well With Snell
While the Padres appear to face a difficult matchup in Wheeler, the Phillies bats could be in for a big day against Snell.
The Phillies have been far more productive this season against left-handed pitching compared to righties, which is clear based on a fourth-best 119 wRC+ and a third-ranked .342 wOBA in 2022. Bryce Harper will likely miss Wednesday’s contest, but that still leaves behind a handful of pieces who have slugged very effectively vs lefties this season.
Wheeler has looked true to form to start the season after a spectacular 2021 campaign, pitching so far this year to a 3.16 xERA over 31 2/3 innings. His fastball velocity and spin-rates are still in the top quarter of the league, and by all indications we should expect his results to remain elite this season.
Wheeler looked sharp last time out vs the Dodgers in his return from a brief stint on the COVID IL, allowing three runs over 5 1/3 innings against one of baseball’s best lineups. In this one, I believe he’ll bounce back against a Padres lineup that probably isn’t as dangerous as it has been.
Even if Snell manages somewhat of a stronger outing than I’m anticipating, the Phillies would have a great matchup against Martinez. Philadelphia’s lineup has been feast or famine this season, and today could be feeding time against a lefty.
I see value backing the Phillies -1.5 at +140, and would play that to +130.
Pick: Phillies -1.5 (play to +125)
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