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Padres vs. Reds Odds, Pick, Prediction: Tyler Mahle Gives Struggling Hosts Value (April 28)

Padres vs. Reds Odds, Pick, Prediction: Tyler Mahle Gives Struggling Hosts Value (April 28) article feature image
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Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images. Pictured: Tyler Mahle (Reds)

  • The Padres take on the Reds in a early-day game that begins at 12:35 p.m. ET.
  • San Diego will start the struggling Nick Martinez against Tyler Mahle.
  • Tony Sartori dives into the matchup and offers up his best bet.

Padres vs. Reds Odds

Padres Odds -105
Reds Odds -115
Over/Under 8 (-120 / +100)
Time 12:35 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

We have the third and final matchup of this three-game series between the NL West’s San Diego Padres and the NL Central’s Cincinnati Reds.

Cincinnati has gotten off to a troubling start this season, as it looks to end this series on a high note.

Will the Reds grab a win to close out the series on their home diamond, or can the Padres complete the road sweep?

Padres Rolling Against Reds

The San Diego Padres enter this contest amidst a two-game win streak and are now 5-0 against the Reds so far this season. However, there is good reason to fade the Padres as a short favorite in this game.

Right-handed pitcher Nick Martinez is projected to take the mound for the Padres, and he has gotten off to a poor start this season. Through three starts this season, Martinez is 0-2 with a 4.30 ERA and 1.773 WHIP in 14 2/3 innings pitched.

Positive regression should not be coming anytime soon, as Martinez’s metrics have been just as bad this season. Currently, Martinez possesses a .427 xwOBA, .291 xBA and .623 xSLG.

Even if Martinez gets chased early, I am not sure San Diego’s bullpen will be any better. This season, San Diego’s relief pitching ranks just 21st in the league in ERA.

San Diego’s pitching staff may not get much run support either, as it’s slated to go against right-handed pitcher Tyler Mahle. Over 34 career plate appearances against Mahle, this current Padres lineup possesses a mere .219 BA, .313 SLG and .251 wOBA.

This lineup has struggled mightily against right-handers this season, and this game could be more of the same. Against right-handed pitchers this season, the Padres rank just 23rd in the league in BA, 18th in wOBA, 25th in SLG and 20th in OPS.


Reds Look To End Poor Homestand

The Cincinnati Reds will look to avoid a home sweep in this third and final game against the Padres. As I mentioned above, Mahle is projected to take the mound for the Reds.

Mahle has gotten off to a brutal start this season, as he is 1-2 with a 6.88 ERA and 1.706 WHIP through 17 innings pitched. However, Mahle’s metrics suggest that positive regression is imminent.

This season, Mahle boasts a .296 xwOBA, .231 xBA and .324 xSLG. Mahle has had some success against the Padres in his career, as he is 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA through three career starts against San Diego.

Cincinnati will look for its fourth win this season and end this poor homestand on a positive note before hitting the road for Colorado.

I think we are getting value here on Cincinnati with positive regression incoming for Mahle. That could very well happen in this matchup against a San Diego lineup that struggles against right-handed pitchers.

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Padres-Reds Pick

The public will be all over San Diego at such a short price on the moneyline, which makes me even more confident in the Reds for this game. Cincinnati is obviously not very good, but it will not lose every single game this season, and the metrics support its price in this spot.

San Diego has lost each of its last two games when Martinez gets the start, and I think it loses once again in this matchup.

Pick: Cincinnati Reds ML (+100) | Play up to (-110)

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