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Padres vs Twins Odds & Picks: Bet Thursday’s Short Favorite

Padres vs Twins Odds & Picks: Bet Thursday’s Short Favorite article feature image

David Berding/Getty Images. Pictured: Manny Machado of the San Diego Padres.

  • The San Diego Padres head back to Minneapolis on Thursday afternoon to take on the Minnesota Twins.
  • The Padres send Yu Darvish to the mound, while the Twins will counter with Bailey Ober.
  • Check out Kenny Ducey's full betting preview for Padres vs Twins below.

Padres vs Twins Odds

Thursday, May 11
1:10 p.m. ET
Padres Odds
MoneylineTotalRun Line
-104 / -118
Twins Odds
MoneylineTotalRun Line
-104 / -118
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

After taking a dramatic extra-inning affair against the Padres at home on Wednesday night, the Twins will look for a long-awaited series win in the rubber game on Thursday. With Bailey Ober on the hill, does the home side have a chance here?

Let’s break it all down in our Padres vs. Twins preview and prediction.

Also, be sure to check out our MLB Betting Hub for more previews from today’s slate of games.

San Diego Padres

The Padres will once again turn to Yu Darvish on Thursday, and the 36-year-old has more or less been a carbon copy of the pitcher we’ve grown accustomed to seeing over the past few years. Darvish has rescued his strikeout rate, bringing it back up from 25.6% to 27.2% so far this season, and he’s posted a very respectable 3.19 ERA with a 3.13 xERA.

In fact, I’d go as far as saying Darvish hasn’t looked this good in three years. His barrel rate is down to a low 6.5%, and his expected batting average is just .199 — the second-lowest ever tracked by Statcast.

Sure, he’s walking more batters this year, but with these peripherals, I don’t really care. Walks were the lone thing saving Darvish from worse numbers in years past and the lone reason his supporters had hope. Now, Darvish is back to dominating by missing more bats and inducing weak contact.

Offensively, things are looking up for the Padres. They’re now up to 15th in wRC+ on the season and have slashed .265/.363/.440 in the past two weeks, which are all top-10 marks.

They continue to struggle with a strikeout in 23.1% of their plate appearances, but they also continue to walk at a ridiculously high clip, ranking second in the league at 11% and strolling to first in 12.9% of plate appearances in the last two weeks.

Minnesota Twins

Minnesota will counter here with Bailey Ober, a 27-year-old right-hander who’s pitched to a solid 3.51 ERA in 166.2 big-league innings over the past three seasons. He’s made just three starts in 2023, but he’s yielded just two runs on 10 hits in 18.1 innings.

Ober’s rolling into this one with a low 26.1% hard-hit rate and a 2.9% barrel rate, but he’s well over the league average in those departments for his career.

So, has anything changed with Ober?

Well, his expected batting average is incredibly low at .209, but it’s not as if he’s turned himself into a different pitcher. He’s still getting outs via the fly ball, and he’s actually induced slightly more this season than he has in his career. His strikeout numbers look relatively the same, though he’s actually walked more batters than normal.

It’s safe to say Ober’s a fly-ball pitcher who’s managed this season to pitch more successfully to contact — but he’s also faced the Nationals, Royals and Guardians thus far.

Minnesota is hurting on offense, ranking 25th in wRC+ over the last two weeks with a high 25.9% strikeout rate, though it has walked in 11.6% of plate appearances. It had mustered up just five runs in the last four games prior to a 4-3 victory over the Padres on Wednesday.

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Padres vs Twins Betting Pick

The Padres may be just 21st in home run-to-fly ball ratio this season, but they rank 10th over the past two weeks and have generated some pretty spicy power numbers. The Padres also sit fifth in fly ball rate for the season and 10th in barrel rate, so they’re certainly going to love this matchup against Ober.

It’s true that Minnesota isn’t the best park to hit a home run in, ranking 21st in that department, but I have faith at least one should leave the yard against Ober given the power that’s been on display in this San Diego offense.

On the other side, Darvish has made a believer out of me to this point in the season and will have arguably his easiest matchup of the year against a Twins side searching for answers.

With that, I think the Padres are a very good bet on Thursday afternoon.

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