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Phillies vs. Braves MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Expect Rookie Spencer Strider to Continue His Hot Start (Tuesday, August 2)

Phillies vs. Braves MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Expect Rookie Spencer Strider to Continue His Hot Start (Tuesday, August 2) article feature image
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Todd Kirkland/Getty Images. Pictured: Spencer Strider

  • The Braves are home favorites on Tuesday against the Phillies in an exciting rivalry matchup on Tuesday night.
  • Atlanta will start rookie sensation Spencer Strider on the mound while Philadelphia will counter with Nick Nelson in a bullpen day.
  • Charlie DiSturco breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.

Phillies vs. Braves Odds

Phillies Odds +185
Braves Odds -225
Over/Under 8.5
Time 7:20 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Fresh off a four-game sweep that included two extra-inning wins, the Philadelphia Phillies head to Atlanta for a two-game series with the Braves on Tuesday night.

This is the second time in a week these National League East rivals will square off, after the Phillies took two out of three at Citizens Bank Park. Now, Atlanta looks to respond with a win on its home field behind rookie sensation Spencer Strider. The Phillies will combat with a bullpen game.

Can the Phillies take down their division foes on the road, or will the Atlanta offense prove too much for the Philadelphia bullpen?

Can the Phillies’ Bullpen Piece Together a Win?

A bullpen game is in order for the Phillies on Tuesday night as Nick Nelson will get the first inning or two.

The right-hander has been dominant over the last month, throwing 11.1 innings of two-run ball. He’s in the top 15 percent in Barrel Rate and Hard-Hit Rate, while his biggest underlying issue is control.

Nelson will anchor the bullpen game from a Philadelphia relief corps that ranks 15th in xFIP (4.00), 28th in BB/9 (4.13) and sixth in HR/9 (0.86). Oftentimes, it’s the Phillies’ control issues that lead to struggles.

Philadelphia will have all arms available on Tuesday night after an off day. The backend of the bullpen has been near-elite with Seranthony Dominguez, Brad Hand and Connor Brogdon all sporting ERAs below 2.05. Corey Knebel (2.59 ERA) also enters fresh off of 10.2 scoreless innings of two-hit ball in July.

The Phillies offense has been about average over the last month as they continue to trudge on without superstar Bryce Harper. They finished 19th in wRC+, 18th in wOBA and 12th in Isolated Power in July.


Strider Looks to Stay Hot for the  Braves

Since being moved to the starting rotation, the rookie Strider has played a critical role toward the Braves’ push for the National League East crown.

Strider’s first start of the second half was against the Phillies on the road, and he threw six innings of one-run ball. The only run came in his last inning of work, a solo shot to Kyle Schwarber.

The right-hander has a 2.91 ERA, but expected indicators are actually lower, showing that he has actually underperformed thus far. His xFIP is all the way down at 2.61.

Strider has an elite fastball-slider combo and a Strikeout Rate of 37.2 percent. Opponents have a .189 xBA and a .304 xSLG off Strider, which ranks in the top 10 percent of all pitchers.

His lone issue is his w\Walk Rate of 9.6 percent. But aside from that — and it’s not even a big issue, it’s just the only area he’s struggled in — Strider has been one of the best young arms in baseball.

The Atlanta bullpen behind him is also dominant as it ranks third in xFIP, first in K-BB% and fifth in HR/9.

Over the last month, Atlanta’s offense has been top 10 in wRC+, wOBA and Isolated Power, and the Braves’ bats have been better at Truist Park, too.

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Phillies-Braves Pick

This line is about accurately priced with the Braves as heavy favorites for good reason.

They hold the edge across the board on Tuesday night, from starting pitching to bullpen to offense. Strider should battle the Phillies’ relief corps that, while strong on the backend, does have occasional issues in the middle relief.

We have a large enough sample size from Strider that we know his dominance is not a fluke. Once he’s taken out of the game, the Braves’ bullpen will be there to shut things down.

Neither team will likely lose key pieces today — with the trade deadline closing in — that would change the line either, as both are in playoff contention and are buyers rather than sellers.

I don’t see a significant edge in this game from a betting standpoint, but I think there’s some value in parlaying the Braves ML with another favorite from tonight’s slate. Say, the Brewers or Astros.

Expect Strider to continue to roll and the Braves to take down the Phillies’ bullpen on Trade Deadline Day!

Pick: Braves ML in a Parlay

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